Krylya Sovetov Samara 2:2 FK Krasnodar: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 13:00

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Krylya Sovetov Samara Home

FK Krasnodar Away

FK Krasnodar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 2–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Krylya Sovetov Samara: 17%
Draw: 25% What happened
FK Krasnodar: 57%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Krylya Sovetov Samara

1.84 xG created 1.71 xGA

D 0.90 created, 0.17 conceded against CSKA Moscow
L 0.82 created, 2.96 conceded against FC Sochi
W 2.91 created, 1.37 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
W 1.11 created, 1.52 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
L 1.04 created, 2.22 conceded against Orenburg
W 4.23 created, 2.02 conceded against Akron Togliatti

FK Krasnodar

1.87 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.22 created, 3.13 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
W 2.18 created, 1.78 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
W 1.30 created, 0.35 conceded against Akron Togliatti
L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
W 2.69 created, 1.39 conceded against Orenburg
W 2.49 created, 0.79 conceded against Rubin Kazan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Krylya Sovetov Samara: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Krylya Sovetov Samara against FK Krasnodar before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.78	+7.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Krylya Sovetov Samara	17.4%	20.6%	−3.2 pp	5.73
Draw	25.1%	24.3%	+0.9 pp	3.98
FK Krasnodar	57.4%	55.1%	+2.3 pp	1.74

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	60.3%	53.6%	+6.7 pp	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	39.7%	46.4%	−6.7 pp	2.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Krylya Sovetov Samara sample: 20 matches
FK Krasnodar sample: 20 matches
Computed: 22 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 22 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.