Friday, 11/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeKrylya Sovetov Samara 2:1 Rodina Moscow
Rodina Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Krylya Sovetov Samara won 2–1. The biggest difference was Krylya Sovetov Samara's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.31 projected (+1.31). Rodina Moscow produced 2.51 xG against 1.48 projected (+1.03).
The model against the result
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 31% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Rodina Moscow
- 39%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Krylya Sovetov Samara produced 1.31 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 17
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 14
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.15
Recent form
1.84 xG created 1.71 xGA
- D 0.90 created, 0.17 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- L 0.82 created, 2.96 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 2.91 created, 1.37 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 1.11 created, 1.52 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- L 1.04 created, 2.22 conceded against Orenburg
- W 4.23 created, 2.02 conceded against Akron Togliatti
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow to win | 4.14 | +62.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.78 | +12.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylya Sovetov Samara | 31.2% | 51.3% | −20.1 pp | 3.21 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 25.5% | +4.2 pp | 3.37 |
| Rodina Moscow | 39.2% | 23.3% | +15.9 pp | 2.55 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 53.9% | +0.4 pp | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 46.1% | −0.4 pp | 2.19 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Krylya Sovetov Samara sample
- 20 matches
- Rodina Moscow sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Rodina Moscow — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.