Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeDundee FC 2:1 Motherwell
Motherwell were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Dundee FC won 2–1. The biggest difference was Motherwell's attack: 1.10 xG against 1.51 projected (−0.41).
Goals
- 23' Joe Westley (pen.) Dundee FC · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 40' Bradley Fink Dundee FC · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
- 45' Alex Lowry Motherwell · 0.39 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Dundee FC
- 27% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Motherwell
- 43%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Motherwell produced 0.41 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 15
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.25
- 0.97
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.12
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.57 for Dundee FC and 1.10 for Motherwell.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.48 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Dundee FC
- Motherwell
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 0.47 created, 2.55 conceded against Celtic
- W 2.22 created, 0.70 conceded against Aberdeen
- W 1.68 created, 1.23 conceded against Dundee United
- L 0.78 created, 2.42 conceded against Hibernian
- D 1.97 created, 1.08 conceded against St. Johnstone
- L 0.51 created, 1.87 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
1.41 xG created 1.62 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +4.8% | Lost |
| Dundee FC at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +2.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC | 26.7% | 30.6% | −3.9 pp | 3.74 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 27.1% | +2.8 pp | 3.34 |
| Motherwell | 43.3% | 42.2% | +1.1 pp | 2.31 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC to score | 71.7% | 73.1% | −1.4 pp | 1.39 |
| Dundee FC not to score | 28.3% | 26.9% | +1.4 pp | 3.53 |
| Motherwell to score | 80.4% | 78.3% | +2.1 pp | 1.24 |
| Motherwell not to score | 19.6% | 21.7% | −2.1 pp | 5.11 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.9% | +0.5 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.6% | 41.1% | −0.5 pp | 2.46 |
| Dundee FC 2+ goals | 33.0% | 39.2% | −6.2 pp | 3.03 |
| Dundee FC at most 1 goal | 67.0% | 60.8% | +6.2 pp | 1.49 |
| Motherwell 2+ goals | 45.8% | 46.3% | −0.6 pp | 2.19 |
| Motherwell at most 1 goal | 54.2% | 53.7% | +0.6 pp | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | 78.0% | +0.8 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 22.0% | −0.8 pp | 4.72 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 54.9% | −3.6 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 45.1% | +3.6 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundee FC sample
- 20 matches
- Motherwell sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.