xgEdge

Expected goals

Livingston expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Scottish Premiership · after 38 matches · updated 1 Oct

Livingston's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Livingston xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.06 xG per match
#12/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.05
#2 Rangers 1.79
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.49
#4 Hibernian 1.46
#5 Motherwell 1.43
#6 Dundee United 1.34
#7 Falkirk FC 1.32
#8 Kilmarnock 1.24
#9 Aberdeen 1.20
#10 St. Mirren 1.08
#11 Dundee FC 1.06
#12 Livingston 1.06
League avg
1.38
Total
40.34 38 matches
Defence
1.91 xGA per match
#12/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.99
#2 Heart of Midlothian 1.01
#3 Rangers 1.08
#4 Motherwell 1.18
#5 St. Mirren 1.22
#6 Hibernian 1.24
#7 Falkirk FC 1.31
#8 Aberdeen 1.54
#9 Dundee FC 1.65
#10 Dundee United 1.71
#11 Kilmarnock 1.71
#12 Livingston 1.91
League avg
1.38
Total
72.45 38 matches
xG difference
-0.85 xGD per match
#12/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.06
#2 Rangers +0.71
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.49
#4 Motherwell +0.25
#5 Hibernian +0.23
#6 Falkirk FC +0.01
#7 St. Mirren -0.14
#8 Aberdeen -0.33
#9 Dundee United -0.36
#10 Kilmarnock -0.47
#11 Dundee FC -0.59
#12 Livingston -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
-32.11 38 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.86 xPts per match
#12/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 1.99
#2 Rangers 1.80
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.70
#4 Motherwell 1.59
#5 Hibernian 1.57
#6 Falkirk FC 1.36
#7 St. Mirren 1.27
#8 Dundee United 1.18
#9 Aberdeen 1.17
#10 Kilmarnock 1.12
#11 Dundee FC 0.98
#12 Livingston 0.86
League avg
1.38
Total
32.85 vs 21 actual pts

What the xG says

Livingston's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Scottish Premiership. They rank #12 for xG difference at -0.85 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 40 goals are 0.34 below 40.34 xG, while 21 points are 11.85 below 32.85 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.36 xG from penalties
40 40.34 -0.34 scored 0.34 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
75 72.45 +2.55 conceded 2.55 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
21 32.85 -11.85 11.85 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Livingston are 0.34 goals below their xG after 38 matches. The gap was widest at -3.58, against Motherwell on Sat 06/12.

Goals
40
xG
40.34
Gap
-0.34
Sat 02/08 Sat 09/08 Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sun 28/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sun 30/11 Sat 06/12 Sat 13/12 Sat 20/12 Sat 27/12 Tue 30/12 Sat 03/01 Sat 10/01 Tue 20/01 Sat 24/01 Sat 31/01 Wed 04/02 Wed 11/02 Sat 14/02 Sun 22/02 Sat 28/02 Sat 14/03 Sat 21/03 Sun 05/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 25/04 Fri 01/05 Sat 09/05 Tue 12/05 Sun 17/05 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.17 +1.58 +1.34 +1.84 +1.28 +1.77 +2.03 +1.77 +1.34 -0.52 -1.21 -1.21 -1.69 -2.44 -3.58 -2.27 -2.33 -1.21 -0.66 -1.27 -1.59 -1.91 -1.65 -1.89 -1.56 -1.61 -1.05 +0.65 +0.90 +0.79 -0.05 -0.02 +0.11 +1.32 +1.76 +0.24 -0.65 -0.34 +0.17 +1.41 -0.24 +0.50 -0.56 +0.49 +0.26 -0.26 -0.43 -1.86 -0.69 +0.00 -0.48 -0.75 -1.14 +1.31 -0.06 +1.12 +0.55 -0.61 -0.32 -0.32 +0.26 -0.24 +0.33 -0.05 +0.56 +1.70 +0.25 -0.11 -0.84 +0.03 +0.13 +1.21 +0.44 -1.52 -0.89 +0.31 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Livingston: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 02/08 Kilmarnock 2 1.83 +0.17 +0.17
Sat 09/08 Falkirk FC 3 1.59 +1.41 +1.58
Sat 23/08 Celtic 0 0.24 -0.24 +1.34
Sat 30/08 Heart of Midlothian 1 0.50 +0.50 +1.84
Sat 13/09 Aberdeen 0 0.56 -0.56 +1.28
Sat 20/09 Dundee FC 2 1.51 +0.49 +1.77
Sun 28/09 Rangers 1 0.74 +0.26 +2.03
Sat 04/10 Dundee United 1 1.26 -0.26 +1.77
Sat 18/10 Hibernian 0 0.43 -0.43 +1.34
Sat 25/10 Motherwell 1 2.86 -1.86 -0.52
Sat 01/11 Hibernian 2 2.69 -0.69 -1.21
Sat 08/11 Falkirk FC 1 1.00 +0.00 -1.21
Sat 22/11 Rangers 1 1.48 -0.48 -1.69
Sun 30/11 Aberdeen 0 0.75 -0.75 -2.44
Sat 06/12 Motherwell 0 1.14 -1.14 -3.58
Sat 13/12 Dundee FC 2 0.69 +1.31 -2.27
Sat 20/12 St. Mirren 0 0.06 -0.06 -2.33
Sat 27/12 Celtic 2 0.88 +1.12 -1.21
Tue 30/12 Dundee United 1 0.45 +0.55 -0.66
Sat 03/01 Heart of Midlothian 0 0.61 -0.61 -1.27
Sat 10/01 Kilmarnock 1 1.32 -0.32 -1.59
Tue 20/01 St. Mirren 1 1.32 -0.32 -1.91
Sat 24/01 Aberdeen 2 1.74 +0.26 -1.65
Sat 31/01 Motherwell 0 0.24 -0.24 -1.89
Wed 04/02 Falkirk FC 1 0.67 +0.33 -1.56
Wed 11/02 Celtic 1 1.05 -0.05 -1.61
Sat 14/02 Dundee FC 2 1.44 +0.56 -1.05
Sun 22/02 Rangers 2 0.30 +1.70 +0.65
Sat 28/02 St. Mirren 1 0.75 +0.25 +0.90
Sat 14/03 Hibernian 0 0.11 -0.11 +0.79
Sat 21/03 Kilmarnock 0 0.84 -0.84 -0.05
Sun 05/04 Heart of Midlothian 2 1.97 +0.03 -0.02
Sat 11/04 Dundee United 2 1.87 +0.13 +0.11
Sat 25/04 St. Mirren 2 0.79 +1.21 +1.32
Fri 01/05 Aberdeen 2 1.56 +0.44 +1.76
Sat 09/05 Dundee FC 0 1.52 -1.52 +0.24
Tue 12/05 Dundee United 0 0.89 -0.89 -0.65
Sun 17/05 Kilmarnock 1 0.69 +0.31 -0.34

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Livingston xG trend

Current form -0.29 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 9 of 38 matches. The worst was against Rangers on Sun 22/02 (-3.47).

npxG · last 6
1.14
npxGA · last 6
1.43
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.92 Sat 02/08 +0.80 Sat 09/08 -2.76 Sat 23/08 -0.83 Sat 30/08 -0.66 Sat 13/09 -1.23 Sat 20/09 -1.64 Sun 28/09 -0.87 Sat 04/10 -2.49 Sat 18/10 +0.60 Sat 25/10 +1.91 Sat 01/11 -0.56 Sat 08/11 +0.32 Sat 22/11 -0.37 Sun 30/11 -1.60 Sat 06/12 -0.32 Sat 13/12 -1.83 Sat 20/12 -1.82 Sat 27/12 -2.79 Tue 30/12 -1.53 Sat 03/01 -0.71 Sat 10/01 -0.09 Tue 20/01 -1.34 Sat 24/01 -1.38 Sat 31/01 -1.57 Wed 04/02 -3.11 Wed 11/02 +0.42 Sat 14/02 -3.47 Sun 22/02 -0.45 Sat 28/02 -1.81 Sat 14/03 -1.04 Sat 21/03 +0.11 Sun 05/04 +0.79 Sat 11/04 -0.23 Sat 25/04 +0.83 Fri 01/05 -1.24 Sat 09/05 -0.52 Tue 12/05 -1.39 Sun 17/05 -0.87 season avg
Livingston: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 02/08 Kilmarnock 1.83 0.91 +0.92 +0.92
Sat 09/08 Falkirk FC 1.59 0.79 +0.80 +0.86
Sat 23/08 Celtic 0.24 3.00 -2.76 -0.35
Sat 30/08 Heart of Midlothian 0.50 1.33 -0.83 -0.47
Sat 13/09 Aberdeen 0.56 1.22 -0.66 -0.51
Sat 20/09 Dundee FC 1.51 2.74 -1.23 -0.63
Sun 28/09 Rangers 0.74 2.38 -1.64 -0.77
Sat 04/10 Dundee United 1.26 2.13 -0.87 -0.78
Sat 18/10 Hibernian 0.43 2.92 -2.49 -0.97
Sat 25/10 Motherwell 2.86 2.26 +0.60 -0.82
Sat 01/11 Hibernian 2.69 0.78 +1.91 -0.57
Sat 08/11 Falkirk FC 1.00 1.56 -0.56 -0.57
Sat 22/11 Rangers 1.48 1.16 +0.32 -0.50
Sun 30/11 Aberdeen 0.75 1.12 -0.37 -0.49
Sat 06/12 Motherwell 1.14 2.74 -1.60 -0.56
Sat 13/12 Dundee FC 0.69 1.01 -0.32 -0.55
Sat 20/12 St. Mirren 0.06 1.89 -1.83 -0.62
Sat 27/12 Celtic 0.88 2.70 -1.82 -0.69
Tue 30/12 Dundee United 0.45 3.24 -2.79 -0.80
Sat 03/01 Heart of Midlothian 0.61 2.14 -1.53 -0.84
Sat 10/01 Kilmarnock 1.32 2.03 -0.71 -0.83
Tue 20/01 St. Mirren 1.32 1.41 -0.09 -0.80
Sat 24/01 Aberdeen 1.74 3.08 -1.34 -0.82
Sat 31/01 Motherwell 0.24 1.62 -1.38 -0.84
Wed 04/02 Falkirk FC 0.67 2.24 -1.57 -0.87
Wed 11/02 Celtic 0.27 3.38 -3.11 -0.96
Sat 14/02 Dundee FC 1.44 1.02 +0.42 -0.91
Sun 22/02 Rangers 0.30 3.77 -3.47 -1.00
Sat 28/02 St. Mirren 0.68 1.13 -0.45 -0.98
Sat 14/03 Hibernian 0.11 1.92 -1.81 -1.01
Sat 21/03 Kilmarnock 0.84 1.88 -1.04 -1.01
Sun 05/04 Heart of Midlothian 1.97 1.86 +0.11 -0.97
Sat 11/04 Dundee United 1.87 1.08 +0.79 -0.92
Sat 25/04 St. Mirren 0.99 1.22 -0.23 -0.90
Fri 01/05 Aberdeen 1.63 0.80 +0.83 -0.85
Sat 09/05 Dundee FC 0.74 1.98 -1.24 -0.86
Tue 12/05 Dundee United 0.89 1.41 -0.52 -0.85
Sun 17/05 Kilmarnock 0.69 2.08 -1.39 -0.87

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.03 npxG and 1.89 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 38 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 11 in Scottish Premiership
−0.28 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 38 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 12

  1. Kilmarnock Home −0.25
  2. Dundee United Away −0.28
  3. Dundee FC Away −0.40
  4. Aberdeen Home −0.37
  5. St. Mirren Away −0.10
  6. Dundee United Away −0.28
  7. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.31
  8. Kilmarnock Away −0.25
  9. Hibernian Away −0.07
  10. St. Mirren Home −0.10
  11. Rangers Home +0.75
  12. Dundee FC Away −0.40
  13. Celtic Away +0.64
  14. Falkirk FC Home +0.14
  15. Motherwell Home +0.32
  16. Aberdeen Away −0.37
  17. St. Mirren Home −0.10
  18. Kilmarnock Home −0.25
  19. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.31
  20. Dundee United Home −0.28
  21. Celtic Home +0.64
  22. St. Mirren Away −0.10
  23. Dundee FC Home −0.40
  24. Motherwell Away +0.32
  25. Aberdeen Home −0.37
  26. Rangers Away +0.75
  27. Falkirk FC Away +0.14
  28. Hibernian Home −0.07
  29. Motherwell Home +0.32
  30. Hibernian Away −0.07
  31. Dundee United Away −0.28
  32. Rangers Home +0.75
  33. Dundee FC Away −0.40
  34. Aberdeen Away −0.37
  35. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.31
  36. Celtic Away +0.64
  37. Falkirk FC Home +0.14
  38. Kilmarnock Away −0.25

Last 5

−0.28 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 11

  1. Kilmarnock Home −0.25
  2. Dundee United Away −0.28
  3. Dundee FC Away −0.40
  4. Aberdeen Home −0.37
  5. St. Mirren Away −0.10

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Livingston shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Livingston take 9.8 shots a match (league 12.6) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #12 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #7 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.8 shots per match
#12/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 16.5
#2 Celtic 16.4
#3 Heart of Midlothian 14.3
#4 Dundee United 13.2
#5 Motherwell 13.2
#6 Hibernian 12.1
#7 St. Mirren 11.9
#8 Falkirk FC 11.8
#9 Kilmarnock 11.3
#10 Aberdeen 11.3
#11 Dundee FC 10.0
#12 Livingston 9.8
League avg
12.6
Total
373 shots from 38 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.12
#2 Hibernian 0.12
#3 Kilmarnock 0.11
#4 Rangers 0.11
#5 Falkirk FC 0.11
#6 Motherwell 0.11
#7 Livingston 0.10
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.10
#9 Aberdeen 0.10
#10 Dundee FC 0.10
#11 Dundee United 0.10
#12 St. Mirren 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
38.98 npxG from 373 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.3 shots per match
=10/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Celtic 9.3
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.9
#3 Rangers 10.3
#4 Motherwell 10.9
#5 St. Mirren 12.1
#6 Hibernian 12.4
#7 Falkirk FC 12.4
#8 Kilmarnock 14.3
#9 Aberdeen 14.3
=10 Dundee United 15.3
=10 Livingston 15.3
#12 Dundee FC 15.3
League avg
12.6
Total
580 shots allowed from 38 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#12/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.10
#2 Hibernian 0.10
#3 St. Mirren 0.10
#4 Heart of Midlothian 0.10
#5 Motherwell 0.10
#6 Falkirk FC 0.10
#7 Rangers 0.10
#8 Dundee FC 0.10
#9 Aberdeen 0.11
#10 Dundee United 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 Livingston 0.12
League avg
0.11
Total
71.93 npxGA from 580 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 239 of 373 shots over 38 matches

Shots allowed, location

70% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 405 of 580 shots allowed over 38 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Livingston home and away xG

Livingston per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 20
xG / match 1.11 1.02
xGA / match 1.79 2.01
xGD / match -0.68 -0.99
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.97 0.77

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Livingston match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
38
xG / match
1.06
xGA / match
1.91
xGD / match
-0.85
Points
21 of 114
  1. Sun 17/05 Kilmarnock H xG 0.69 xGA 2.08 xGD -1.39
  2. Tue 12/05 Dundee United A xG 0.89 xGA 1.42 xGD -0.53
  3. Sat 09/05 Dundee FC A xG 1.52 P xGA 1.98 xGD -0.46
  4. Fri 01/05 Aberdeen H xG 1.56 xGA 0.70 xGD +0.86
  5. Sat 25/04 St. Mirren A xG 0.79 xGA 1.35 xGD -0.56
  6. Sat 11/04 Dundee United A xG 1.87 xGA 1.87 P xGD +0.00
  7. Sun 05/04 Heart of Midlothian H xG 1.97 xGA 1.86 xGD +0.11
  8. Sat 21/03 Kilmarnock A xG 0.84 xGA 1.87 xGD -1.03
  9. Sat 14/03 Hibernian A xG 0.11 xGA 1.85 xGD -1.74
  10. Sat 28/02 St. Mirren H xG 0.75 xGA 1.08 xGD -0.33
  11. Sun 22/02 Rangers H Weakest underlying xG 0.30 xGA 3.63 xGD -3.33
  12. Sat 14/02 Dundee FC A xG 1.44 xGA 1.02 xGD +0.42
  13. Wed 11/02 Celtic A xG 1.05 P xGA 3.34 xGD -2.29
  14. Wed 04/02 Falkirk FC H xG 0.67 xGA 2.24 xGD -1.57
  15. Sat 31/01 Motherwell H xG 0.24 xGA 1.62 xGD -1.38
  16. Sat 24/01 Aberdeen A xG 1.74 xGA 3.08 xGD -1.34
  17. Tue 20/01 St. Mirren H xG 1.32 xGA 1.41 xGD -0.09
  18. Sat 10/01 Kilmarnock H xG 1.32 xGA 2.03 xGD -0.71
  19. Sat 03/01 Heart of Midlothian A xG 0.61 xGA 2.14 xGD -1.53
  20. Tue 30/12 Dundee United H xG 0.45 xGA 3.24 xGD -2.79
  21. Sat 27/12 Celtic H xG 0.88 xGA 2.70 xGD -1.82
  22. Sat 20/12 St. Mirren A xG 0.06 xGA 1.89 xGD -1.83
  23. Sat 13/12 Dundee FC H xG 0.69 xGA 1.01 xGD -0.32
  24. Sat 06/12 Motherwell A xG 1.14 xGA 2.74 xGD -1.60
  25. Sun 30/11 Aberdeen H xG 0.75 xGA 1.12 xGD -0.37
  26. Sat 22/11 Rangers A xG 1.48 xGA 1.16 xGD +0.32
  27. Sat 08/11 Falkirk FC A xG 1.00 xGA 1.56 xGD -0.56
  28. Sat 01/11 Hibernian H Best underlying xG 2.69 xGA 0.78 xGD +1.91
  29. Sat 25/10 Motherwell H xG 2.86 xGA 2.26 xGD +0.60
  30. Sat 18/10 Hibernian A xG 0.43 xGA 2.92 xGD -2.49
  31. Sat 04/10 Dundee United A xG 1.26 xGA 2.13 xGD -0.87
  32. Sun 28/09 Rangers H xG 0.74 xGA 2.38 xGD -1.64
  33. Sat 20/09 Dundee FC A xG 1.51 xGA 2.74 xGD -1.23
  34. Sat 13/09 Aberdeen A xG 0.56 xGA 1.22 xGD -0.66
  35. Sat 30/08 Heart of Midlothian H xG 0.50 xGA 1.33 xGD -0.83
  36. Sat 23/08 Celtic A xG 0.24 xGA 3.00 xGD -2.76
  37. Sat 09/08 Falkirk FC H xG 1.59 xGA 0.79 xGD +0.80
  38. Sat 02/08 Kilmarnock A xG 1.83 xGA 0.91 xGD +0.92

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.63. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Livingston in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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