St. Johnstone 2:1 Hibernian: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Scottish Premiership

St. Johnstone Home 2.49 xG · 9 shots

Hibernian Away 1.72 xG · 14 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

St. Johnstone were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was St. Johnstone's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.30 projected (+1.19). Hibernian produced 1.72 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.43).

Goals

17' Josh Fowler St. Johnstone · 0.66 xG chance 1–0
29' Nathan Lowe Hibernian · 0.56 xG chance 1–1
41' Josh Fowler (pen.) St. Johnstone · 0.82 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

St. Johnstone: 35% What happened
Draw: 31%
Hibernian: 34%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

St. Johnstone 1.30 2.49 +1.19

Hibernian 1.29 1.72 +0.43

St. Johnstone produced 1.19 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

St. Johnstone Hibernian

Shots: 9; 14
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 6; 10
xG per shot: 0.29; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.73; 1.37
Set-piece xG: 0.03; 0.33
Penalties: 1; 0

St. Johnstone's shots add up to 2.58 xG and Hibernian's to 1.70; the published figures are 2.49 and 1.72.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 4.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

St. Johnstone
Hibernian
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

St. Johnstone

1.28 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.76 created, 0.79 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 1.13 created, 1.36 conceded against St. Mirren
L 1.16 created, 1.71 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
D 1.08 created, 1.97 conceded against Dundee FC

Hibernian

1.67 xG created 1.36 xGA

W 1.54 created, 1.45 conceded against Rangers
L 0.70 created, 1.07 conceded against Motherwell
L 1.92 created, 2.00 conceded against Motherwell
W 1.74 created, 2.05 conceded against Rangers
W 2.42 created, 0.78 conceded against Dundee FC
L 1.70 created, 0.82 conceded against Heart of Midlothian

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on St. Johnstone against Hibernian before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
St. Johnstone to win	3.00	+4.3%	Won
Draw	3.25	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Johnstone	34.8%	31.3%	+3.5 pp	2.88
Draw	31.1%	28.8%	+2.2 pp	3.22
Hibernian	34.2%	39.9%	−5.7 pp	2.93

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.4%	55.7%	+2.7 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.6%	44.3%	−2.7 pp	2.41
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	74.5%	+2.7 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	25.5%	−2.7 pp	4.38
Over 2.5 goals	49.0%	50.0%	−1.0 pp	2.04
Under 2.5 goals	51.0%	50.0%	+1.0 pp	1.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
St. Johnstone sample: 4 matches
Hibernian sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Warnings

St. Johnstone has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.