Heart of Midlothian 2:1 St. Johnstone: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Scottish Premiership

Heart of Midlothian Home 1.71 xG · 17 shots

St. Johnstone Away 1.16 xG · 9 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Heart of Midlothian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Heart of Midlothian's attack: 1.71 xG against 1.42 projected (+0.29).

Goals

9' James Wilson Heart of Midlothian · 0.54 xG chance 1–0
39' Enes Alić (o.g.) Heart of Midlothian · 0.16 xG chance 2–0
48' Ruari Paton St. Johnstone · 0.53 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Heart of Midlothian: 45% What happened
Draw: 31%
St. Johnstone: 24%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Heart of Midlothian 1.42 1.71 +0.29

St. Johnstone 1.02 1.16 +0.14

Heart of Midlothian produced 0.29 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Heart of Midlothian St. Johnstone

Shots: 17; 9
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.26; 1.09
Set-piece xG: 0.60; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Heart of Midlothian's shots add up to 1.86 xG; the published figure is 1.71.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Heart of Midlothian
St. Johnstone
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Heart of Midlothian

1.14 xG created 1.27 xGA

W 0.75 created, 0.82 conceded against Rangers
D 1.09 created, 0.45 conceded against Motherwell
W 0.59 created, 0.30 conceded against Falkirk FC
L 0.96 created, 2.82 conceded against Celtic
L 1.34 created, 2.66 conceded against Aberdeen
W 2.09 created, 0.54 conceded against Dundee United

St. Johnstone

1.44 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 1.76 created, 0.79 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 1.13 created, 1.36 conceded against St. Mirren

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Heart of Midlothian against St. Johnstone before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Heart of Midlothian not to score	5.50	+17.2%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+17.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+15.6%	Lost
Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal	2.00	+14.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+11.2%	Lost
St. Johnstone to win	4.50	+8.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian	44.7%	54.2%	−9.5 pp	2.24
Draw	31.2%	25.0%	+6.2 pp	3.20
St. Johnstone	24.0%	20.8%	+3.2 pp	4.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score	78.7%	82.8%	−4.1 pp	1.27
Heart of Midlothian not to score	21.3%	17.2%	+4.1 pp	4.69
St. Johnstone to score	66.7%	64.5%	+2.2 pp	1.50
St. Johnstone not to score	33.3%	35.5%	−2.2 pp	3.00
Both teams to score	54.3%	54.7%	−0.3 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.7%	45.3%	+0.3 pp	2.19
Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals	42.8%	53.7%	−10.9 pp	2.34
Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal	57.2%	46.3%	+10.9 pp	1.75
St. Johnstone 2+ goals	27.1%	27.7%	−0.6 pp	3.70
St. Johnstone at most 1 goal	72.9%	72.3%	+0.6 pp	1.37
Over 1.5 goals	74.3%	78.0%	−3.7 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	25.7%	22.0%	+3.7 pp	3.90
Over 2.5 goals	45.0%	54.9%	−9.9 pp	2.22
Under 2.5 goals	55.0%	45.1%	+9.9 pp	1.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Heart of Midlothian sample: 20 matches
St. Johnstone sample: 2 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

St. Johnstone has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.