xgEdge

Expected goals

St. Johnstone expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

St. Johnstone's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

St. Johnstone xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.30 xG per match
#8/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
9.07 7 matches
Defence
1.52 xGA per match
#5/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
10.67 7 matches
xG difference
-0.23 xGD per match
#8/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.60 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.20 xPts per match
#9/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
8.37 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

St. Johnstone's underlying numbers sit close to the Scottish Premiership average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.23 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 9 goals are 0.07 below 9.07 xG, while 8 points are 0.37 below 8.37 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.55 xG from penalties
9 9.07 -0.07 scored 0.07 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 10.67 -0.67 conceded 0.67 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 8.37 -0.37 0.37 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

St. Johnstone are 0.07 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -0.39, against Celtic on Wed 09/09.

Goals
9
xG
9.07
Gap
-0.07
Sun 02/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sun 06/09 Wed 09/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.24 +1.11 +0.95 +0.87 +0.38 -0.39 -0.07 +2.24 -1.13 -0.16 -0.08 -0.49 -0.77 +0.32 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
St. Johnstone: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 Kilmarnock 4 1.76 +2.24 +2.24
Sat 08/08 St. Mirren 0 1.13 -1.13 +1.11
Sat 29/08 Heart of Midlothian 1 1.16 -0.16 +0.95
Wed 02/09 Dundee FC 1 1.08 -0.08 +0.87
Sun 06/09 Hibernian 2 2.49 -0.49 +0.38
Wed 09/09 Celtic 0 0.77 -0.77 -0.39
Sat 19/09 Falkirk FC 1 0.68 +0.32 -0.07

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

St. Johnstone xG trend

Current form -0.61 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Wed 09/09 (-1.42).

npxG · last 6
1.09
npxGA · last 6
1.70
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.01 Sun 02/08 -0.23 Sat 08/08 -0.72 Sat 29/08 -0.92 Wed 02/09 -0.02 Sun 06/09 -1.42 Wed 09/09 -0.34 Sat 19/09 -0.38 season avg
St. Johnstone: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 Kilmarnock 1.96 0.95 +1.01 +1.01
Sat 08/08 St. Mirren 1.13 1.36 -0.23 +0.39
Sat 29/08 Heart of Midlothian 1.16 1.88 -0.72 +0.02
Wed 02/09 Dundee FC 1.08 2.00 -0.92 -0.21
Sun 06/09 Hibernian 1.70 1.72 -0.02 -0.18
Wed 09/09 Celtic 0.81 2.23 -1.42 -0.38
Sat 19/09 Falkirk FC 0.68 1.02 -0.34 -0.38

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.22 npxG and 1.59 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 8 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 4 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 8 hardest of 12

  1. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  2. Celtic Home +0.82
  3. Hibernian Home −0.03
  4. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  5. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.18
  6. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  7. Kilmarnock Home −0.52

Last 5

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 4 hardest of 12

  1. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  2. Celtic Home +0.82
  3. Hibernian Home −0.03
  4. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  5. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.18

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

St. Johnstone shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. St. Johnstone take 10.6 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #10 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #2 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 21% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.6 shots per match
#10/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
74 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#2/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
8.52 npxG from 74 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.6 shots per match
#5/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
88 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#12/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
11.16 npxGA from 88 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 50 of 74 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

70% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 62 of 88 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.6 of 7.6 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

84% open play · 16% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.6 of 10.0 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

St. Johnstone home and away xG

St. Johnstone per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.43 1.12
xGA / match 1.41 1.68
xGD / match +0.02 -0.56
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.39 0.94

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every St. Johnstone match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.30
xGA / match
1.52
xGD / match
-0.23
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Falkirk FC H xG 0.68 xGA 0.90 xGD -0.22
  2. Wed 09/09 Celtic H Weakest underlying xG 0.77 xGA 2.22 xGD -1.45
  3. Sun 06/09 Hibernian H xG 2.49 P xGA 1.72 xGD +0.77
  4. Wed 02/09 Dundee FC A xG 1.08 xGA 1.97 xGD -0.89
  5. Sat 29/08 Heart of Midlothian A xG 1.16 xGA 1.71 xGD -0.55
  6. Sat 08/08 St. Mirren A xG 1.13 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.23
  7. Sun 02/08 Kilmarnock H Best underlying xG 1.76 xGA 0.79 xGD +0.97

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

St. Johnstone in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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