xgEdge

Expected goals

Heart of Midlothian expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Heart of Midlothian's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Heart of Midlothian xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.62 xG per match
#4/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
11.33 7 matches
Defence
1.26 xGA per match
#3/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
8.85 7 matches
xG difference
+0.35 xGD per match
#3/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+2.48 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.68 xPts per match
#3/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
11.73 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Heart of Midlothian's underlying numbers are among the best in Scottish Premiership. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.35 per match, driven by high shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 14 goals are 2.67 above 11.33 xG, while 13 points are 1.27 above 11.73 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.35 xG from penalties
14 11.33 +2.67 scored 2.67 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 8.85 -0.85 conceded 0.85 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
13 11.73 +1.27 1.27 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Heart of Midlothian are 2.67 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +4.17, against Dundee FC on Sun 06/09.

Goals
14
xG
11.33
Gap
+2.67
Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 29/08 Thu 03/09 Sun 06/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 -0.34 +1.57 +1.86 +4.04 +4.17 +3.45 +2.67 -0.34 +1.91 +0.29 +2.18 +0.13 -0.72 -0.78 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Heart of Midlothian: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 Aberdeen 1 1.34 -0.34 -0.34
Sun 09/08 Dundee United 4 2.09 +1.91 +1.57
Sat 29/08 St. Johnstone 2 1.71 +0.29 +1.86
Thu 03/09 Hibernian 3 0.82 +2.18 +4.04
Sun 06/09 Dundee FC 2 1.87 +0.13 +4.17
Tue 15/09 Falkirk FC 1 1.72 -0.72 +3.45
Sat 19/09 Kilmarnock 1 1.78 -0.78 +2.67

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Heart of Midlothian xG trend

Current form +0.40 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Hibernian on Thu 03/09 (-0.88).

npxG · last 6
1.44
npxGA · last 6
1.04
-1 0 +1 +2 -0.19 Sat 01/08 +0.82 Sun 09/08 +0.72 Sat 29/08 -0.88 Thu 03/09 +0.57 Sun 06/09 -0.26 Tue 15/09 +1.45 Sat 19/09 +0.32 season avg
Heart of Midlothian: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 Aberdeen 1.34 1.53 -0.19 -0.19
Sun 09/08 Dundee United 1.36 0.54 +0.82 +0.31
Sat 29/08 St. Johnstone 1.88 1.16 +0.72 +0.45
Thu 03/09 Hibernian 0.82 1.70 -0.88 +0.12
Sun 06/09 Dundee FC 1.08 0.51 +0.57 +0.21
Tue 15/09 Falkirk FC 1.72 1.98 -0.26 +0.13
Sat 19/09 Kilmarnock 1.78 0.33 +1.45 +0.32

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.43 npxG and 1.11 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 12 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.26 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 12 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.28 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.26 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 12 hardest of 12

  1. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  2. Falkirk FC Away −0.15
  3. Dundee FC Home −0.48
  4. Hibernian Away −0.03
  5. St. Johnstone Home −0.23
  6. Dundee United Home −0.09
  7. Aberdeen Away −0.33

Last 5

−0.28 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 12

  1. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  2. Falkirk FC Away −0.15
  3. Dundee FC Home −0.48
  4. Hibernian Away −0.03
  5. St. Johnstone Home −0.23

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Heart of Midlothian shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Heart of Midlothian take 16.0 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #4 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #8 for quality. 66% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.0 shots per match
#4/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
112 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#8/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
9.98 npxG from 112 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.7 shots per match
#2/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
68 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#10/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
7.75 npxGA from 68 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

66% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 74 of 112 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

74% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 50 of 68 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.4 of 9.9 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.9 of 7.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Heart of Midlothian home and away xG

Heart of Midlothian per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.89 1.42
xGA / match 0.74 1.66
xGD / match +1.15 -0.24
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.25 1.25

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Heart of Midlothian match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.62
xGA / match
1.26
xGD / match
+0.35
Points
13 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Kilmarnock A Best underlying xG 1.78 xGA 0.23 xGD +1.55
  2. Tue 15/09 Falkirk FC A xG 1.72 xGA 2.05 xGD -0.33
  3. Sun 06/09 Dundee FC H xG 1.87 P xGA 0.51 xGD +1.36
  4. Thu 03/09 Hibernian A xG 0.82 xGA 1.70 xGD -0.88
  5. Sat 29/08 St. Johnstone H xG 1.71 xGA 1.16 xGD +0.55
  6. Sun 09/08 Dundee United H xG 2.09 P xGA 0.54 xGD +1.55
  7. Sat 01/08 Aberdeen A Weakest underlying xG 1.34 xGA 2.66 P xGD -1.32

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Heart of Midlothian in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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