Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeFalkirk FC 2:1 Heart of Midlothian
Heart of Midlothian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Falkirk FC won 2–1. The biggest difference was Falkirk FC's attack: 2.05 xG against 1.03 projected (+1.02). Heart of Midlothian produced 1.72 xG against 1.22 projected (+0.50).
Goals
- 8' Ben Krauhaus Falkirk FC · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
- 22' James Wilson Heart of Midlothian · 0.93 xG chance 1–1
- 68' Owen Eames Falkirk FC · 0.11 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Falkirk FC
- 28% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- Heart of Midlothian
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Falkirk FC produced 1.02 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 9
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 1.78
- 1.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.98 for Falkirk FC and 1.72 for Heart of Midlothian.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 3.74 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Falkirk FC
- Heart of Midlothian
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.94 xG created 1.99 xGA
1.46 xG created 1.57 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart of Midlothian not to score | 5.50 | +45.8% | Lost |
| Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +29.6% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +28.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +26.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +23.2% | Lost |
| Falkirk FC to win | 4.20 | +18.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk FC | 28.3% | 22.4% | +5.9 pp | 3.54 |
| Draw | 33.3% | 25.4% | +7.9 pp | 3.00 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 38.4% | 52.2% | −13.8 pp | 2.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk FC to score | 67.3% | 64.5% | +2.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Falkirk FC not to score | 32.7% | 35.5% | −2.8 pp | 3.06 |
| Heart of Midlothian to score | 73.5% | 82.8% | −9.3 pp | 1.36 |
| Heart of Midlothian not to score | 26.5% | 17.2% | +9.3 pp | 3.77 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 54.7% | −3.2 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.6% | 45.3% | +3.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Falkirk FC 2+ goals | 27.7% | 29.1% | −1.4 pp | 3.61 |
| Falkirk FC at most 1 goal | 72.3% | 70.9% | +1.4 pp | 1.38 |
| Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals | 35.2% | 53.7% | −18.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal | 64.8% | 46.3% | +18.5 pp | 1.54 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | 78.0% | −7.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 22.0% | +7.7 pp | 3.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 54.9% | −15.1 pp | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 45.1% | +15.1 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Falkirk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.