Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:45
Full timeKilmarnock 1:1 Heart of Midlothian
Heart of Midlothian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Kilmarnock's attack: 0.23 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.94). Heart of Midlothian produced 1.78 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.28).
Goals
- 16' Jamie McCart (o.g.) Kilmarnock · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 86' Stephen Kingsley Heart of Midlothian · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Kilmarnock
- 27%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Heart of Midlothian
- 43%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Kilmarnock produced 0.94 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 17
- On target
- 1
- 3
- Inside the box
- 4
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 0.27
- 1.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.55
- Penalties
- —
- —
Kilmarnock's shots add up to 0.34 xG and Heart of Midlothian's to 1.83; the published figures are 0.23 and 1.78.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 2.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Kilmarnock
- Heart of Midlothian
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.00 xG created 2.36 xGA
1.59 xG created 1.44 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart of Midlothian not to score | 7.00 | +37.6% | Lost |
| Kilmarnock to win | 5.00 | +34.6% | Lost |
| Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +29.2% | Won |
| Draw | 4.10 | +22.9% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +15.6% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +5.8% | Lost |
| Kilmarnock to score | 1.40 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 26.9% | 18.8% | +8.1 pp | 3.72 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 22.9% | +7.0 pp | 3.34 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 43.1% | 58.2% | −15.1 pp | 2.32 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock to score | 71.8% | 66.3% | +5.6 pp | 1.39 |
| Kilmarnock not to score | 28.2% | 33.7% | −5.6 pp | 3.55 |
| Heart of Midlothian to score | 80.3% | 86.4% | −6.1 pp | 1.24 |
| Heart of Midlothian not to score | 19.7% | 13.6% | +6.1 pp | 5.09 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 58.9% | +0.6 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.5% | 41.1% | −0.6 pp | 2.47 |
| Kilmarnock 2+ goals | 33.2% | 31.3% | +1.9 pp | 3.01 |
| Kilmarnock at most 1 goal | 66.8% | 68.7% | −1.9 pp | 1.50 |
| Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals | 45.6% | 60.8% | −15.2 pp | 2.19 |
| Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal | 54.4% | 39.2% | +15.2 pp | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | 81.1% | −2.2 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 18.9% | +2.2 pp | 4.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 60.2% | −8.9 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 39.8% | +8.9 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kilmarnock sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.