xgEdge

Expected goals

Kilmarnock expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Kilmarnock's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Kilmarnock xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.89 xG per match
#12/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
6.22 7 matches
Defence
2.28 xGA per match
#12/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
15.93 7 matches
xG difference
-1.39 xGD per match
#12/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-9.71 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.71 xPts per match
#12/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
4.99 vs 5 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Kilmarnock's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Scottish Premiership. They rank #12 for xG difference at -1.39 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.22 below 6.22 xG, while 5 points are 0.01 above 4.99 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 6.22 -0.22 scored 0.22 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
15 15.93 -0.93 conceded 0.93 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 4.99 +0.01 0.01 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Kilmarnock are 0.22 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -0.99, against Hibernian on Tue 15/09.

Goals
6
xG
6.22
Gap
-0.22
Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.21 +2.35 +1.32 +0.89 -0.04 -0.99 -0.22 +2.21 +0.14 -1.03 -0.43 -0.93 -0.95 +0.77 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Kilmarnock: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 St. Johnstone 3 0.79 +2.21 +2.21
Sun 09/08 Celtic 1 0.86 +0.14 +2.35
Sat 29/08 Dundee United 0 1.03 -1.03 +1.32
Wed 02/09 St. Mirren 0 0.43 -0.43 +0.89
Sat 05/09 Aberdeen 0 0.93 -0.93 -0.04
Tue 15/09 Hibernian 1 1.95 -0.95 -0.99
Sat 19/09 Heart of Midlothian 1 0.23 +0.77 -0.22

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Kilmarnock xG trend

Current form -1.30 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Sun 09/08 (-4.85).

npxG · last 6
0.92
npxGA · last 6
2.22
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.01 Sun 02/08 -4.85 Sun 09/08 -1.56 Sat 29/08 -0.66 Wed 02/09 +0.08 Sat 05/09 +0.64 Tue 15/09 -1.45 Sat 19/09 -1.26 season avg
Kilmarnock: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 St. Johnstone 0.95 1.96 -1.01 -1.01
Sun 09/08 Celtic 0.86 5.71 -4.85 -2.93
Sat 29/08 Dundee United 1.03 2.59 -1.56 -2.47
Wed 02/09 St. Mirren 0.43 1.09 -0.66 -2.02
Sat 05/09 Aberdeen 0.93 0.85 +0.08 -1.60
Tue 15/09 Hibernian 1.95 1.31 +0.64 -1.23
Sat 19/09 Heart of Midlothian 0.33 1.78 -1.45 -1.26

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.93 npxG and 2.18 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 5 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 5 hardest of 12

  1. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  2. Hibernian Away −0.03
  3. Aberdeen Away −0.33
  4. St. Mirren Home −0.08
  5. Dundee United Home −0.09
  6. Celtic Home +0.82
  7. St. Johnstone Away −0.23

Last 5

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 12

  1. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  2. Hibernian Away −0.03
  3. Aberdeen Away −0.33
  4. St. Mirren Home −0.08
  5. Dundee United Home −0.09

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Kilmarnock shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Kilmarnock take 9.9 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =11 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #4 for quality. 74% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 29% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.9 shots per match
=11/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
69 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#4/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
6.48 npxG from 69 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
18.4 shots per match
#11/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
129 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#11/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
15.29 npxGA from 129 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

74% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 51 of 69 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

74% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 96 of 129 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

71% open play · 29% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.8 of 6.2 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 3.1 of 15.2 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Kilmarnock home and away xG

Kilmarnock per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 0.64 1.22
xGA / match 3.00 1.31
xGD / match -2.37 -0.08
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.28 1.29

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Kilmarnock match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.89
xGA / match
2.28
xGD / match
-1.39
Points
5 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Heart of Midlothian H xG 0.23 xGA 1.78 xGD -1.55
  2. Tue 15/09 Hibernian A Best underlying xG 1.95 xGA 1.31 xGD +0.64
  3. Sat 05/09 Aberdeen A xG 0.93 xGA 0.85 xGD +0.08
  4. Wed 02/09 St. Mirren H xG 0.43 xGA 1.09 xGD -0.66
  5. Sat 29/08 Dundee United H xG 1.03 xGA 3.50 P xGD -2.47
  6. Sun 09/08 Celtic H Weakest underlying xG 0.86 xGA 5.64 xGD -4.78
  7. Sun 02/08 St. Johnstone A xG 0.79 xGA 1.76 xGD -0.97

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 5.64. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Kilmarnock in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect