Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00
6d 16h to kick-offHeart of Midlothian – St. Mirren
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Heart of Midlothian
- 43%
- Draw
- 33%
- St. Mirren
- 24%
| Heart of Midlothian | Draw | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.34 | 3.06 | 4.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Heart of Midlothian
- Model
- 42.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 66.2%
- Probability gap
- −23.4 pp
- Edge
- −40.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
- Market odds
- 1.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.5%
- Probability gap
- +13.2 pp
- Edge
- +55.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.06
- Market odds
- 4.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.21
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
St. Mirren
- Model
- 24.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.3%
- Probability gap
- +10.2 pp
- Edge
- +59.0%
- Fair odds
- 4.09
- Market odds
- 6.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.29
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
Outcomes with value
Heart of Midlothian not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
St. Mirren to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams not to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Heart of Midlothian not to score
Model 24.3% vs. bookmaker 10.6%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Heart of Midlothian
43% Heart of Midlothian to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 5th
- Heart of Midlothian attack v St. Mirren defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 7th
- Heart of Midlothian defence v St. Mirren attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 0.96
- Heart of Midlothian v St. Mirren
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Heart of Midlothian | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.62 · 4th | 1.44 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 3rd | 1.57 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.35 · 3rd | -0.12 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 3rd | 1.33 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.63 | -0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Heart of Midlothian clean sheet
- 35%
- Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 1:0
- 11.2%
- 0:0
- 10.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- St. Mirren sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · St. Mirren
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.