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Expected goals

St. Mirren expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

St. Mirren's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

St. Mirren xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.44 xG per match
#6/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
10.10 7 matches
Defence
1.57 xGA per match
#8/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
10.96 7 matches
xG difference
-0.12 xGD per match
#6/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.86 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.33 xPts per match
#7/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
9.33 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

St. Mirren's underlying numbers sit close to the Scottish Premiership average. They rank #6 for xG difference at -0.12 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 8 goals are 2.10 below 10.10 xG, while 10 points are 0.67 above 9.33 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.84 xG from penalties
8 10.10 -2.10 scored 2.10 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 10.96 -1.96 conceded 1.96 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 9.33 +0.67 0.67 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

St. Mirren are 2.10 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
8
xG
10.10
Gap
-2.10
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 30/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Wed 09/09 Sat 19/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.36 +0.00 +0.68 +0.59 -0.15 -1.25 -2.10 +0.36 -0.36 +0.68 -0.09 -0.74 -1.10 -0.85 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
St. Mirren: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 Falkirk FC 2 1.64 +0.36 +0.36
Sat 08/08 St. Johnstone 1 1.36 -0.36 +0.00
Sun 30/08 Motherwell 3 2.32 +0.68 +0.68
Wed 02/09 Kilmarnock 1 1.09 -0.09 +0.59
Sat 05/09 Celtic 1 1.74 -0.74 -0.15
Wed 09/09 Rangers 0 1.10 -1.10 -1.25
Sat 19/09 Dundee United 0 0.85 -0.85 -2.10

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

St. Mirren xG trend

Current form -0.32 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Sat 05/09 (-1.98).

npxG · last 6
1.27
npxGA · last 6
1.59
-2 -1 0 +1 +0.93 Sat 01/08 +0.23 Sat 08/08 +0.89 Sun 30/08 +0.66 Wed 02/09 -1.98 Sat 05/09 -1.06 Wed 09/09 -0.67 Sat 19/09 -0.14 season avg
St. Mirren: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 Falkirk FC 1.64 0.71 +0.93 +0.93
Sat 08/08 St. Johnstone 1.36 1.13 +0.23 +0.58
Sun 30/08 Motherwell 2.27 1.38 +0.89 +0.68
Wed 02/09 Kilmarnock 1.09 0.43 +0.66 +0.68
Sat 05/09 Celtic 0.95 2.93 -1.98 +0.15
Wed 09/09 Rangers 1.10 2.16 -1.06 -0.06
Sat 19/09 Dundee United 0.85 1.52 -0.67 -0.14

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.32 npxG and 1.47 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.22 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 3 hardest of 12

  1. Dundee United Home −0.09
  2. Rangers Away +0.85
  3. Celtic Home +0.82
  4. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  5. Motherwell Home +0.05
  6. St. Johnstone Home −0.23
  7. Falkirk FC Away −0.15

Last 5

+0.22 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 12

  1. Dundee United Home −0.09
  2. Rangers Away +0.85
  3. Celtic Home +0.82
  4. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  5. Motherwell Home +0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

St. Mirren shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. St. Mirren take 14.3 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #7 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #5 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 16% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.3 shots per match
#7/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
100 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#5/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
9.26 npxG from 100 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.9 shots per match
#6/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
104 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#7/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.26 npxGA from 104 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 63 of 100 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

75% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 78 of 104 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

84% open play · 16% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.4 of 8.5 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.3 of 9.3 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

St. Mirren home and away xG

St. Mirren per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.57 1.28
xGA / match 1.92 1.09
xGD / match -0.36 +0.19
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.14 1.59

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every St. Mirren match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.44
xGA / match
1.57
xGD / match
-0.12
Points
10 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Dundee United H xG 0.85 xGA 1.52 xGD -0.67
  2. Wed 09/09 Rangers A xG 1.10 xGA 2.13 xGD -1.03
  3. Sat 05/09 Celtic H Weakest underlying xG 1.74 P xGA 2.93 xGD -1.19
  4. Wed 02/09 Kilmarnock A xG 1.09 xGA 0.43 xGD +0.66
  5. Sun 30/08 Motherwell H xG 2.32 xGA 2.11 P xGD +0.21
  6. Sat 08/08 St. Johnstone H xG 1.36 xGA 1.13 xGD +0.23
  7. Sat 01/08 Falkirk FC A Best underlying xG 1.64 xGA 0.71 xGD +0.93

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

St. Mirren in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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