Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 15:00
21d 12h to kick-offMotherwell – Heart of Midlothian
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Motherwell
- 33%
- Draw
- 33%
- Heart of Midlothian
- 34%
| Motherwell | Draw | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.02 | 3.05 | 2.93 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Heart of Midlothian to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 4th
- Heart of Midlothian attack v Motherwell defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 5th
- Heart of Midlothian defence v Motherwell attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.27
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.17 – 1.19
- Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Motherwell | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.36 · 7th | (better) 1.62 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.58 · 10th | (better) 1.26 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 7th | (better) +0.35 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.37 · 6th | (better) 1.68 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.27 | (better) +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Heart of Midlothian clean sheet
- 28%
- Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals
- 34%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 0:0
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Motherwell sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Motherwell
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.