xgEdge

Expected goals

Inter expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Serie A · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Inter's attacking and defensive expected goals in Serie A 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Inter xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.90 xG per match
#1/20
Attack (xG per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Inter 2.90
#2 Roma 2.56
#3 Como 1.89
#4 Monza 1.79
#5 Sassuolo 1.73
#6 Fiorentina 1.72
#7 Milan 1.58
#8 Juventus 1.55
#9 Lazio 1.55
#10 Frosinone 1.51
#11 Venezia 1.49
#12 Napoli 1.44
#13 Udinese 1.40
#14 Bologna 1.18
#15 Cagliari 1.09
#16 Lecce 1.06
#17 Torino 1.03
#18 Genoa 0.89
#19 Atalanta 0.81
#20 Parma 0.68
League avg
1.49
Total
14.49 5 matches
Defence
1.34 xGA per match
#10/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Juventus 0.48
#2 Bologna 0.95
#3 Monza 1.06
#4 Roma 1.11
#5 Milan 1.18
#6 Lazio 1.24
=7 Genoa 1.33
=7 Sassuolo 1.33
#9 Fiorentina 1.33
#10 Inter 1.34
#11 Napoli 1.40
#12 Como 1.53
#13 Parma 1.58
#14 Torino 1.69
#15 Cagliari 1.76
#16 Udinese 1.84
#17 Atalanta 1.87
#18 Frosinone 2.10
#19 Venezia 2.35
#20 Lecce 2.38
League avg
1.49
Total
6.72 5 matches
xG difference
+1.55 xGD per match
#1/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter +1.55
#2 Roma +1.45
#3 Juventus +1.07
#4 Monza +0.73
#5 Sassuolo +0.41
#6 Milan +0.40
#7 Fiorentina +0.39
#8 Como +0.36
#9 Lazio +0.30
#10 Bologna +0.24
#11 Napoli +0.03
=12 Genoa -0.44
=12 Udinese -0.44
#14 Frosinone -0.59
#15 Torino -0.66
#16 Cagliari -0.66
#17 Venezia -0.87
#18 Parma -0.90
#19 Atalanta -1.06
#20 Lecce -1.32
League avg
0.00
Total
+7.77 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.21 xPts per match
#3/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Roma 2.23
#2 Juventus 2.23
#3 Inter 2.21
#4 Monza 1.89
#5 Fiorentina 1.69
#6 Milan 1.63
#7 Sassuolo 1.63
#8 Lazio 1.62
#9 Como 1.60
#10 Bologna 1.55
#11 Napoli 1.50
#12 Udinese 1.13
#13 Cagliari 1.11
#14 Genoa 1.00
#15 Frosinone 0.98
#16 Venezia 0.93
#17 Torino 0.88
#18 Parma 0.70
#19 Atalanta 0.67
#20 Lecce 0.60
League avg
1.39
Total
11.05 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Inter's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.55 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and elite chance quality. Their 15 goals are 0.51 above 14.49 xG, while 13 points are 1.95 above 11.05 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
15 14.49 +0.51 scored 0.51 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 6.72 +1.28 conceded 1.28 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
13 11.05 +1.95 1.95 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Inter are 0.51 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +2.95, against Monza on Sat 22/08.

Goals
15
xG
14.49
Gap
+0.51
Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.95 +0.28 -0.58 +1.37 +0.51 +2.95 -2.67 -0.86 +1.95 -0.86 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Inter: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Monza 4 1.05 +2.95 +2.95
Sun 30/08 Cagliari 1 3.67 -2.67 +0.28
Sat 05/09 Napoli 3 3.86 -0.86 -0.58
Mon 14/09 Udinese 5 3.05 +1.95 +1.37
Sat 19/09 Roma 2 2.86 -0.86 +0.51

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Inter xG trend

Current form +1.55 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 5 matches.

npxG · last 5
2.83
npxGA · last 5
1.28
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.07 Sat 22/08 +3.45 Sun 30/08 +0.94 Sat 05/09 +2.41 Mon 14/09 +0.88 Sat 19/09 +1.55 season avg
Inter: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Monza 1.16 1.09 +0.07 +0.07
Sun 30/08 Cagliari 3.90 0.45 +3.45 +1.76
Sat 05/09 Napoli 3.19 2.25 +0.94 +1.49
Mon 14/09 Udinese 3.31 0.90 +2.41 +1.72
Sat 19/09 Roma 2.57 1.69 +0.88 +1.55

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.83 npxG and 1.28 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 8 hardest of 20 in Serie A
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 20

  1. Roma Away +0.62
  2. Udinese Home −0.26
  3. Napoli Home +0.24
  4. Cagliari Away −0.42
  5. Monza Home +0.09

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Inter shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Inter take 23.2 shots a match (league 14.6) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #2 in Serie A for volume and #2 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 30% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
23.2 shots per match
#2/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Como 23.4
#2 Inter 23.2
#3 Roma 20.6
#4 Juventus 17.6
#5 Sassuolo 17.2
=6 Fiorentina 16.8
=6 Frosinone 16.8
#8 Monza 14.4
#9 Udinese 14.2
#10 Venezia 14.0
#11 Napoli 13.8
#12 Bologna 13.4
=13 Lazio 12.8
=13 Milan 12.8
=15 Atalanta 11.8
=15 Genoa 11.8
#17 Cagliari 10.8
#18 Torino 9.4
#19 Lecce 8.4
#20 Parma 8.2
League avg
14.6
Total
116 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#2/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Roma 0.13
#2 Inter 0.12
#3 Monza 0.11
#4 Napoli 0.11
#5 Lecce 0.11
#6 Milan 0.11
#7 Lazio 0.11
#8 Venezia 0.10
#9 Fiorentina 0.10
#10 Torino 0.09
#11 Sassuolo 0.09
#12 Bologna 0.09
#13 Juventus 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.09
#15 Frosinone 0.09
#16 Como 0.08
#17 Parma 0.08
#18 Cagliari 0.08
#19 Genoa 0.06
#20 Atalanta 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
14.13 npxG from 116 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.4 shots per match
#4/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Juventus 7.8
#2 Milan 9.0
#3 Roma 9.2
#4 Inter 11.4
=5 Bologna 11.8
=5 Fiorentina 11.8
=5 Monza 11.8
#8 Lazio 13.0
#9 Venezia 14.4
#10 Como 15.0
#11 Torino 15.4
=12 Genoa 15.8
=12 Sassuolo 15.8
=14 Lecce 16.6
=14 Napoli 16.6
#16 Udinese 17.2
#17 Parma 18.4
#18 Atalanta 19.2
#19 Cagliari 20.4
#20 Frosinone 20.8
League avg
14.6
Total
57 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#16/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Juventus 0.06
#2 Sassuolo 0.07
#3 Napoli 0.07
#4 Genoa 0.08
#5 Cagliari 0.08
#6 Bologna 0.08
#7 Lazio 0.08
#8 Frosinone 0.09
#9 Torino 0.09
#10 Como 0.09
#11 Monza 0.09
#12 Parma 0.09
#13 Atalanta 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.11
#15 Roma 0.11
#16 Inter 0.11
#17 Fiorentina 0.11
#18 Milan 0.13
#19 Lecce 0.14
#20 Venezia 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
6.38 npxGA from 57 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 83 of 116 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

72% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 41 of 57 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

70% open play · 30% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 4.2 of 14.0 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 0.8 of 6.5 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Inter home and away xG

Inter per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 2.65 3.27
xGA / match 1.53 1.07
xGD / match +1.13 +2.20
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.00 2.53

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Inter match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
3
xG / match
2.65
xGA / match
1.53
xGD / match
+1.13
Points
9 of 9
  1. Mon 14/09 Udinese H xG 3.05 xGA 0.92 xGD +2.13
  2. Sat 05/09 Napoli H xG 3.86 P xGA 2.43 xGD +1.43
  3. Sat 22/08 Monza H xG 1.05 xGA 1.23 xGD -0.18

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.86. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Inter in Serie A

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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