Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeLecce 0:4 Roma
Roma were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Roma's attack: 3.27 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.91).
Goals
- 4' Donyell Malen Roma · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
- 23' Donyell Malen Roma · 0.54 xG chance 0–2
- 25' Matías Soulé Roma · 0.51 xG chance 0–3
- 65' Rodrigo Mora Roma · 0.80 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- Lecce
- 20%
- Draw
- 32%
- Roma
- 48% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Roma produced 1.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 15
- On target
- 3
- 8
- Inside the box
- 3
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 0.42
- 3.49
- Set-piece xG
- 0.33
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Lecce's shots add up to 0.75 xG and Roma's to 3.49; the published figures are 0.80 and 3.27.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 4.24 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Lecce
- Roma
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce to win | 8.00 | +61.6% | Lost |
| Roma not to score | 6.00 | +37.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.20 | +34.9% | Lost |
| Roma at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +25.1% | Lost |
| Lecce 2+ goals | 6.00 | +20.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +11.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.50 | +9.3% | Lost |
| Lecce to score | 1.83 | +9.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 20.2% | 11.8% | +8.4 pp | 4.95 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 22.6% | +9.6 pp | 3.11 |
| Roma | 47.7% | 65.6% | −17.9 pp | 2.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce to score | 59.6% | 50.0% | +9.6 pp | 1.68 |
| Lecce not to score | 40.4% | 50.0% | −9.6 pp | 2.47 |
| Roma to score | 77.1% | 84.2% | −7.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Roma not to score | 22.9% | 15.8% | +7.1 pp | 4.37 |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 44.3% | +3.6 pp | 2.09 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.2% | 55.7% | −3.6 pp | 1.92 |
| Lecce 2+ goals | 20.1% | 15.8% | +4.3 pp | 4.98 |
| Lecce at most 1 goal | 79.9% | 84.2% | −4.3 pp | 1.25 |
| Roma 2+ goals | 40.4% | 55.7% | −15.3 pp | 2.47 |
| Roma at most 1 goal | 59.6% | 44.3% | +15.3 pp | 1.68 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | 72.9% | −4.1 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 27.1% | +4.1 pp | 3.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 47.4% | −9.2 pp | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 52.6% | +9.2 pp | 1.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lecce sample
- 20 matches
- Roma sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.