Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeMonza 2:1 Sassuolo
Monza were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Sassuolo's attack: 1.47 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.40).
Goals
- 51' Gustavo Varela Monza · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 63' Gustavo Varela (pen.) Monza · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
- 88' Vasilije Adžić Sassuolo · 0.11 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Monza
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Sassuolo
- 22%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Sassuolo produced 0.40 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 20
- On target
- 6
- 8
- Inside the box
- 8
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.43
- 1.17
- Set-piece xG
- 0.23
- 0.46
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.66 for Monza and 1.61 for Sassuolo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 3.11 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Monza
- Sassuolo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo not to score | 4.33 | +36.0% | Lost |
| Monza to win | 2.75 | +34.9% | Won |
| Sassuolo at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +22.5% | Won |
| Monza 2+ goals | 2.25 | +12.3% | Won |
| Monza to score | 1.29 | +6.4% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 49.1% | 34.4% | +14.7 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.8% | +1.1 pp | 3.46 |
| Sassuolo | 22.1% | 37.8% | −15.7 pp | 4.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza to score | 82.8% | 73.1% | +9.6 pp | 1.21 |
| Monza not to score | 17.2% | 26.9% | −9.6 pp | 5.80 |
| Sassuolo to score | 68.6% | 78.3% | −9.7 pp | 1.46 |
| Sassuolo not to score | 31.4% | 21.7% | +9.7 pp | 3.19 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 57.7% | +0.8 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.5% | 42.3% | −0.8 pp | 2.41 |
| Monza 2+ goals | 49.9% | 41.1% | +8.8 pp | 2.00 |
| Monza at most 1 goal | 50.1% | 58.9% | −8.8 pp | 2.00 |
| Sassuolo 2+ goals | 29.1% | 46.3% | −17.3 pp | 3.44 |
| Sassuolo at most 1 goal | 70.9% | 53.7% | +17.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | 78.0% | +1.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 22.0% | −1.2 pp | 4.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 54.9% | −3.0 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 45.1% | +3.0 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Monza sample
- 4 matches
- Sassuolo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 46 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Monza has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.