Parma 1:1 Monza: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Serie A

Parma Home 0.73 xG · 7 shots

Monza Away 1.72 xG · 16 shots

11 Monza had the better chances, but it finished level

Monza were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Monza's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.55).

Goals

38' Jay Robinson Monza · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
60' Simone Lontani Parma · 0.12 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Parma: 26%
Draw: 34% What happened
Monza: 40%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Parma 0.92 0.73 -0.19

Monza 1.17 1.72 +0.55

Monza produced 0.55 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Parma Monza

Shots: 7; 16
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 7; 13
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.32; 1.36
Set-piece xG: 0.39; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.70 for Parma and 1.71 for Monza.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Parma
Monza
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Parma

0.59 xG created 1.82 xGA

L 0.27 created, 2.09 conceded against Inter
L 0.73 created, 2.62 conceded against Roma
L 0.43 created, 2.77 conceded against Como
W 1.12 created, 0.91 conceded against Sassuolo
L 0.75 created, 0.94 conceded against Cagliari
L 0.25 created, 1.58 conceded against Juventus

Monza

1.46 xG created 1.02 xGA

L 1.23 created, 1.05 conceded against Inter
L 1.70 created, 0.98 conceded against Udinese

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Parma against Monza before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Monza to win	2.75	+8.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.20	+8.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	+8.5%	Won
Draw	3.00	+3.4%	Won
Both teams not to score	1.91	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Parma	26.0%	34.3%	−8.3 pp	3.85
Draw	34.5%	31.4%	+3.0 pp	2.90
Monza	39.6%	34.3%	+5.3 pp	2.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	47.3%	50.0%	−2.7 pp	2.11
Both teams not to score	52.7%	50.0%	+2.7 pp	1.90
Over 1.5 goals	66.1%	70.1%	−4.0 pp	1.51
Under 1.5 goals	33.9%	29.9%	+4.0 pp	2.95
Over 2.5 goals	34.9%	43.1%	−8.2 pp	2.86
Under 2.5 goals	65.1%	56.9%	+8.2 pp	1.54

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Parma sample: 20 matches
Monza sample: 2 matches
Computed: 48 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 48 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

Monza has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.