Parma 0:1 Cagliari: xG & match report · Serie A

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Parma Home 0.75 xG · 12 shots

Cagliari Away 0.94 xG · 14 shots

01 The chances were evenly matched

Cagliari were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Parma's attack: 0.75 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.36).

Goals

79' Alessandro Romano Cagliari · 0.02 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Parma: 32%
Draw: 33%
Cagliari: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Parma 1.11 0.75 -0.36

Cagliari 1.18 0.94 -0.24

Parma produced 0.36 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Parma Cagliari

Shots: 12; 14
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 7; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.26; 0.58
Set-piece xG: 0.66; 0.40
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.89 for Parma and 1.00 for Cagliari.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 1.90 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Parma
Cagliari
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Parma

0.90 xG created 1.87 xGA

W 1.23 created, 1.13 conceded against Udinese
W 1.64 created, 1.71 conceded against Pisa
L 0.27 created, 2.09 conceded against Inter
L 0.73 created, 2.62 conceded against Roma
L 0.43 created, 2.77 conceded against Como
W 1.12 created, 0.91 conceded against Sassuolo

Cagliari

1.43 xG created 1.52 xGA

L 0.41 created, 2.23 conceded against Inter
W 1.56 created, 1.18 conceded against Atalanta
D 1.07 created, 0.53 conceded against Bologna
L 1.47 created, 2.47 conceded against Udinese
W 1.32 created, 0.99 conceded against Torino
W 2.78 created, 1.74 conceded against Milan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Parma: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Parma against Cagliari before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Cagliari to win	3.10	+9.0%	Won
Both teams to score	2.00	+5.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+2.8%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.50	+2.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Parma	31.6%	37.9%	−6.3 pp	3.17
Draw	33.3%	31.6%	+1.7 pp	3.01
Cagliari	35.2%	30.5%	+4.6 pp	2.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.6%	46.7%	+6.0 pp	1.90
Both teams not to score	47.4%	53.3%	−6.0 pp	2.11
Over 1.5 goals	71.2%	65.6%	+5.6 pp	1.40
Under 1.5 goals	28.8%	34.4%	−5.6 pp	3.47
Over 2.5 goals	40.8%	38.0%	+2.8 pp	2.45
Under 2.5 goals	59.2%	62.0%	−2.8 pp	1.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Parma sample: 20 matches
Cagliari sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.