xgEdge

Expected goals

AE Larisa expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Super League Greece · after 36 matches · updated 1 Oct

AE Larisa's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AE Larisa xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.03 xG per match
#11/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 1.93
#2 AEK Athens 1.86
#3 PAOK 1.72
#4 APO Levadiakos 1.69
#5 Panathinaikos 1.50
#6 AE Kifisia 1.25
#7 Atromitos Athens 1.22
#8 Aris Thessaloniki 1.19
#9 NPS Volos 1.19
#10 OFI Crete 1.09
#11 AE Larisa 1.03
#12 Asteras Aktor 1.00
#13 Panetolikos 0.95
#14 MGS Panserraikos 0.76
League avg
1.30
Total
37.16 36 matches
Defence
1.55 xGA per match
#10/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.62
#2 PAOK 0.87
#3 AEK Athens 0.94
#4 Panathinaikos 1.13
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.18
#6 APO Levadiakos 1.26
#7 Atromitos Athens 1.35
#8 AE Kifisia 1.35
#9 Asteras Aktor 1.38
#10 AE Larisa 1.55
#11 NPS Volos 1.60
#12 Panetolikos 1.60
#13 MGS Panserraikos 1.60
#14 OFI Crete 1.61
League avg
1.30
Total
55.84 36 matches
xG difference
-0.52 xGD per match
#11/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Olympiacos FC +1.31
#2 AEK Athens +0.92
#3 PAOK +0.85
#4 APO Levadiakos +0.44
#5 Panathinaikos +0.37
#6 Aris Thessaloniki +0.00
#7 AE Kifisia -0.10
#8 Atromitos Athens -0.13
#9 Asteras Aktor -0.38
#10 NPS Volos -0.42
#11 AE Larisa -0.52
#12 OFI Crete -0.52
#13 Panetolikos -0.66
#14 MGS Panserraikos -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
-18.68 36 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.06 xPts per match
#12/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.21
#2 AEK Athens 1.98
#3 PAOK 1.98
#4 Panathinaikos 1.63
#5 APO Levadiakos 1.58
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.38
#7 AE Kifisia 1.33
#8 Atromitos Athens 1.31
#9 Asteras Aktor 1.12
#10 NPS Volos 1.08
#11 OFI Crete 1.07
#12 AE Larisa 1.06
#13 Panetolikos 1.00
#14 MGS Panserraikos 0.87
League avg
1.39
Total
38.19 vs 30 actual pts

What the xG says

AE Larisa's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Super League Greece. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.52 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 34 goals are 3.16 below 37.16 xG, while 30 points are 8.19 below 38.19 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.69 xG from penalties
34 37.16 -3.16 scored 3.16 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
56 55.84 +0.16 conceded 0.16 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
30 38.19 -8.19 8.19 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AE Larisa are 3.16 goals below their xG after 36 matches. The gap was widest at -4.75, against MGS Panserraikos on Sun 26/04.

Goals
34
xG
37.16
Gap
-3.16
Sun 24/08 Sat 30/08 Sun 14/09 Sun 21/09 Mon 29/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Sat 08/11 Mon 24/11 Sat 29/11 Sun 07/12 Sat 13/12 Sun 21/12 Sat 10/01 Sun 18/01 Sat 24/01 Sat 31/01 Sat 07/02 Sun 15/02 Sun 22/02 Sat 28/02 Sat 07/03 Sat 14/03 Sun 22/03 Sat 04/04 Wed 08/04 Sat 18/04 Wed 22/04 Sun 26/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 09/05 Tue 12/05 Sat 16/05 Thu 21/05 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.24 -0.16 +0.20 -0.41 +0.15 +0.17 +0.08 +0.57 -0.18 -1.06 -1.44 -1.26 -1.46 -1.52 -1.71 -2.12 -1.75 -2.30 -2.82 -3.06 -2.72 -2.60 -3.15 -3.68 -4.12 -4.41 -4.47 -4.63 -4.43 -4.28 -4.75 -4.13 -3.92 -3.82 -3.19 -3.16 -0.24 +0.08 +0.36 -0.61 +0.56 +0.02 -0.09 +0.49 -0.75 -0.88 -0.38 +0.18 -0.20 -0.06 -0.19 -0.41 +0.37 -0.55 -0.52 -0.24 +0.34 +0.12 -0.55 -0.53 -0.44 -0.29 -0.06 -0.16 +0.20 +0.15 -0.47 +0.62 +0.21 +0.10 +0.63 +0.03 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AE Larisa: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 24/08 PAOK 0 0.24 -0.24 -0.24
Sat 30/08 AE Kifisia 1 0.92 +0.08 -0.16
Sun 14/09 Asteras Aktor 2 1.64 +0.36 +0.20
Sun 21/09 AEK Athens 1 1.61 -0.61 -0.41
Mon 29/09 Atromitos Athens 1 0.44 +0.56 +0.15
Sat 04/10 NPS Volos 2 1.98 +0.02 +0.17
Sat 18/10 Olympiacos FC 0 0.09 -0.09 +0.08
Sat 25/10 MGS Panserraikos 2 1.51 +0.49 +0.57
Sun 02/11 APO Levadiakos 0 0.75 -0.75 -0.18
Sat 08/11 Panetolikos 0 0.88 -0.88 -1.06
Mon 24/11 OFI Crete 1 1.38 -0.38 -1.44
Sat 29/11 Aris Thessaloniki 1 0.82 +0.18 -1.26
Sun 07/12 Panathinaikos 2 2.20 -0.20 -1.46
Sat 13/12 APO Levadiakos 0 0.06 -0.06 -1.52
Sun 21/12 Atromitos Athens 0 0.19 -0.19 -1.71
Sat 10/01 AE Kifisia 1 1.41 -0.41 -2.12
Sun 18/01 Aris Thessaloniki 1 0.63 +0.37 -1.75
Sat 24/01 MGS Panserraikos 1 1.55 -0.55 -2.30
Sat 31/01 NPS Volos 2 2.52 -0.52 -2.82
Sat 07/02 Panetolikos 1 1.24 -0.24 -3.06
Sun 15/02 Panathinaikos 1 0.66 +0.34 -2.72
Sun 22/02 PAOK 1 0.88 +0.12 -2.60
Sat 28/02 OFI Crete 0 0.55 -0.55 -3.15
Sat 07/03 AEK Athens 0 0.53 -0.53 -3.68
Sat 14/03 Asteras Aktor 1 1.44 -0.44 -4.12
Sun 22/03 Olympiacos FC 0 0.29 -0.29 -4.41
Sat 04/04 Asteras Aktor 1 1.06 -0.06 -4.47
Wed 08/04 Panetolikos 1 1.16 -0.16 -4.63
Sat 18/04 Atromitos Athens 2 1.80 +0.20 -4.43
Wed 22/04 AE Kifisia 1 0.85 +0.15 -4.28
Sun 26/04 MGS Panserraikos 0 0.47 -0.47 -4.75
Sat 02/05 MGS Panserraikos 1 0.38 +0.62 -4.13
Sat 09/05 Asteras Aktor 1 0.79 +0.21 -3.92
Tue 12/05 Panetolikos 1 0.90 +0.10 -3.82
Sat 16/05 Atromitos Athens 2 1.37 +0.63 -3.19
Thu 21/05 AE Kifisia 2 1.97 +0.03 -3.16

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

AE Larisa xG trend

Current form -0.19 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 36 matches. The worst was against APO Levadiakos on Sat 13/12 (-3.02).

npxG · last 6
0.99
npxGA · last 6
1.18
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.78 Sun 24/08 +0.22 Sat 30/08 +0.89 Sun 14/09 -0.59 Sun 21/09 -1.10 Mon 29/09 -1.39 Sat 04/10 -2.12 Sat 18/10 +1.11 Sat 25/10 -1.20 Sun 02/11 -1.57 Sat 08/11 +0.20 Mon 24/11 -2.00 Sat 29/11 +0.48 Sun 07/12 -3.02 Sat 13/12 -0.15 Sun 21/12 -1.13 Sat 10/01 +0.08 Sun 18/01 +0.83 Sat 24/01 +1.76 Sat 31/01 +0.76 Sat 07/02 -0.20 Sun 15/02 -0.33 Sun 22/02 -0.47 Sat 28/02 -1.90 Sat 07/03 -0.11 Sat 14/03 -2.17 Sun 22/03 -0.31 Sat 04/04 +0.29 Wed 08/04 -0.27 Sat 18/04 -0.08 Wed 22/04 +0.13 Sun 26/04 -0.23 Sat 02/05 -0.04 Sat 09/05 -0.65 Tue 12/05 -0.51 Sat 16/05 +0.14 Thu 21/05 -0.46 season avg
AE Larisa: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 24/08 PAOK 0.24 2.02 -1.78 -1.78
Sat 30/08 AE Kifisia 0.92 0.70 +0.22 -0.78
Sun 14/09 Asteras Aktor 1.64 0.75 +0.89 -0.22
Sun 21/09 AEK Athens 1.61 2.20 -0.59 -0.31
Mon 29/09 Atromitos Athens 0.44 1.54 -1.10 -0.47
Sat 04/10 NPS Volos 1.98 3.37 -1.39 -0.63
Sat 18/10 Olympiacos FC 0.09 2.21 -2.12 -0.84
Sat 25/10 MGS Panserraikos 1.51 0.40 +1.11 -0.60
Sun 02/11 APO Levadiakos 0.75 1.95 -1.20 -0.66
Sat 08/11 Panetolikos 0.88 2.45 -1.57 -0.75
Mon 24/11 OFI Crete 1.38 1.18 +0.20 -0.67
Sat 29/11 Aris Thessaloniki 0.82 2.82 -2.00 -0.78
Sun 07/12 Panathinaikos 2.20 1.72 +0.48 -0.68
Sat 13/12 APO Levadiakos 0.06 3.08 -3.02 -0.85
Sun 21/12 Atromitos Athens 0.19 0.34 -0.15 -0.80
Sat 10/01 AE Kifisia 1.41 2.54 -1.13 -0.82
Sun 18/01 Aris Thessaloniki 0.63 0.55 +0.08 -0.77
Sat 24/01 MGS Panserraikos 1.55 0.72 +0.83 -0.68
Sat 31/01 NPS Volos 2.52 0.76 +1.76 -0.55
Sat 07/02 Panetolikos 1.24 0.48 +0.76 -0.49
Sun 15/02 Panathinaikos 0.68 0.88 -0.20 -0.47
Sun 22/02 PAOK 0.88 1.21 -0.33 -0.47
Sat 28/02 OFI Crete 0.55 1.02 -0.47 -0.47
Sat 07/03 AEK Athens 0.53 2.43 -1.90 -0.53
Sat 14/03 Asteras Aktor 0.65 0.76 -0.11 -0.51
Sun 22/03 Olympiacos FC 0.29 2.46 -2.17 -0.57
Sat 04/04 Asteras Aktor 1.08 1.39 -0.31 -0.56
Wed 08/04 Panetolikos 1.16 0.87 +0.29 -0.53
Sat 18/04 Atromitos Athens 1.81 2.08 -0.27 -0.52
Wed 22/04 AE Kifisia 0.84 0.92 -0.08 -0.51
Sun 26/04 MGS Panserraikos 0.47 0.34 +0.13 -0.49
Sat 02/05 MGS Panserraikos 0.44 0.67 -0.23 -0.48
Sat 09/05 Asteras Aktor 0.79 0.83 -0.04 -0.47
Tue 12/05 Panetolikos 0.90 1.55 -0.65 -0.47
Sat 16/05 Atromitos Athens 1.37 1.88 -0.51 -0.47
Thu 21/05 AE Kifisia 1.97 1.83 +0.14 -0.46

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.01 npxG and 1.47 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 36 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.25 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 14

  1. AE Kifisia Away −0.15
  2. Atromitos Athens Home 0.00
  3. Panetolikos Away −0.46
  4. Asteras Aktor Home −0.20
  5. MGS Panserraikos Away −0.45
  6. MGS Panserraikos Home −0.45
  7. AE Kifisia Home −0.15
  8. Atromitos Athens Away 0.00
  9. Panetolikos Home −0.46
  10. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  11. Olympiacos FC Away +1.02
  12. Asteras Aktor Home −0.20
  13. AEK Athens Away +0.72
  14. OFI Crete Away −0.30
  15. PAOK Home +0.42
  16. Panathinaikos Away +0.26
  17. Panetolikos Home −0.46
  18. NPS Volos Away −0.50
  19. MGS Panserraikos Home −0.45
  20. Aris Thessaloniki Home +0.04
  21. AE Kifisia Away −0.15
  22. Atromitos Athens Home 0.00
  23. APO Levadiakos Away −0.12
  24. Panathinaikos Home +0.26
  25. Aris Thessaloniki Away +0.04
  26. OFI Crete Home −0.30
  27. Panetolikos Away −0.46
  28. APO Levadiakos Home −0.12
  29. MGS Panserraikos Away −0.45
  30. Olympiacos FC Home +1.02
  31. NPS Volos Home −0.50
  32. Atromitos Athens Away 0.00
  33. AEK Athens Home +0.72
  34. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  35. AE Kifisia Home −0.15
  36. PAOK Away +0.42

Last 5

−0.25 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 14

  1. AE Kifisia Away −0.15
  2. Atromitos Athens Home 0.00
  3. Panetolikos Away −0.46
  4. Asteras Aktor Home −0.20
  5. MGS Panserraikos Away −0.45

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AE Larisa shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. AE Larisa take 11.3 shots a match (league 11.9) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #7 in Super League Greece for volume and #12 for quality. 53% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.3 shots per match
#7/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 18.0
#2 AEK Athens 14.9
#3 Aris Thessaloniki 13.8
#4 AE Kifisia 13.4
#5 PAOK 13.2
#6 Panathinaikos 12.6
#7 AE Larisa 11.3
#8 APO Levadiakos 11.2
#9 NPS Volos 11.1
#10 Atromitos Athens 10.8
#11 Asteras Aktor 9.9
#12 OFI Crete 9.5
#13 Panetolikos 9.4
#14 MGS Panserraikos 8.0
League avg
11.9
Total
408 shots from 36 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#12/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 APO Levadiakos 0.15
#2 PAOK 0.12
#3 AEK Athens 0.12
#4 Panathinaikos 0.12
#5 OFI Crete 0.12
#6 Atromitos Athens 0.11
#7 Olympiacos FC 0.11
#8 NPS Volos 0.10
#9 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#10 MGS Panserraikos 0.09
#11 AE Kifisia 0.09
#12 AE Larisa 0.09
#13 Panetolikos 0.09
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
36.47 npxG from 408 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.6 shots per match
#11/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 6.3
#2 PAOK 8.7
#3 AEK Athens 9.2
#4 Panathinaikos 9.4
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 10.8
#6 Atromitos Athens 11.4
#7 AE Kifisia 12.4
#8 APO Levadiakos 12.7
#9 NPS Volos 13.0
#10 Asteras Aktor 13.1
#11 AE Larisa 13.6
#12 Panetolikos 13.9
#13 MGS Panserraikos 14.8
#14 OFI Crete 15.8
League avg
11.9
Total
490 shots allowed from 36 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#10/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.10
#2 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#3 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#4 OFI Crete 0.10
#5 AEK Athens 0.10
#6 PAOK 0.10
#7 MGS Panserraikos 0.10
#8 Aris Thessaloniki 0.11
#9 AE Kifisia 0.11
#10 AE Larisa 0.11
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.11
#12 Panetolikos 0.11
#13 Panathinaikos 0.12
#14 NPS Volos 0.12
League avg
0.11
Total
52.90 npxGA from 490 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

53% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 218 of 408 shots over 36 matches

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 306 of 490 shots allowed over 36 matches

How the shot figures are made →

AE Larisa home and away xG

AE Larisa per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 18
xG / match 1.08 0.98
xGA / match 1.34 1.76
xGD / match -0.26 -0.78
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.21 0.91

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AE Larisa match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.08
xGA / match
1.51
xGD / match
-0.43
Points
6 of 15
  1. Thu 21/05 AE Kifisia A Best underlying xG 1.97 xGA 1.83 xGD +0.14
  2. Sat 16/05 Atromitos Athens H xG 1.37 xGA 1.88 xGD -0.51
  3. Tue 12/05 Panetolikos A xG 0.90 xGA 1.56 xGD -0.66
  4. Sat 09/05 Asteras Aktor H xG 0.79 xGA 0.83 xGD -0.04
  5. Sat 02/05 MGS Panserraikos A Weakest underlying xG 0.38 xGA 1.45 P xGD -1.07

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AE Larisa in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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