Fenerbahçe 1:2 Beşiktaş: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe Home 0.59 xG · 9 shots

Beşiktaş Away 1.75 xG · 14 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Fenerbahçe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. Beşiktaş won 2–1. The biggest difference was Fenerbahçe's attack: 0.59 xG against 1.59 projected (−1.00). Beşiktaş produced 1.75 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.59).

Goals

26' Milan Škriniar Fenerbahçe · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
38' Rıdvan Yılmaz Beşiktaş · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
73' Dušan Vlahović Beşiktaş · 0.80 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fenerbahçe: 46%
Draw: 29%
Beşiktaş: 25% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fenerbahçe 1.59 0.59 -1.00

Beşiktaş 1.16 1.75 +0.59

Fenerbahçe produced 1.00 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş

Shots: 9; 14
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 3; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.20; 1.60
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.49 for Fenerbahçe and 1.66 for Beşiktaş.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.15 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fenerbahçe

2.23 xG created 0.98 xGA

W 2.05 created, 0.89 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 3.19 created, 0.64 conceded against Konyaspor
D 1.33 created, 0.52 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 2.90 created, 1.19 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 2.36 created, 2.15 conceded against Konyaspor
W 1.56 created, 0.46 conceded against Samsunspor

Beşiktaş

1.75 xG created 1.09 xGA

W 1.46 created, 1.68 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 2.22 created, 0.69 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 1.82 created, 2.87 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
W 1.28 created, 0.09 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 0.74 created, 0.54 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 2.97 created, 0.67 conceded against Çorum FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fenerbahçe: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fenerbahçe against Beşiktaş before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fenerbahçe	45.9%	44.0%	+1.9 pp	2.18
Draw	29.1%	28.9%	+0.2 pp	3.44
Beşiktaş	25.0%	27.2%	−2.1 pp	3.99

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.3%	57.7%	+2.6 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.7%	42.3%	−2.6 pp	2.52
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	75.0%	+5.1 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	25.0%	−5.1 pp	5.02
Over 2.5 goals	53.3%	51.3%	+2.0 pp	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	46.7%	48.7%	−2.0 pp	2.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fenerbahçe sample: 20 matches
Beşiktaş sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.