Kocaelispor 1:0 Samsunspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Kocaelispor Home 1.59 xG · 9 shots

Samsunspor Away 1.74 xG · 19 shots

10 The chances were evenly matched

Kocaelispor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Samsunspor's attack: 1.74 xG against 0.87 projected (+0.87). Kocaelispor produced 1.59 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.42).

Goals

26' Florian Ayé Kocaelispor · 0.67 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kocaelispor: 41% What happened
Draw: 35%
Samsunspor: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kocaelispor 1.17 1.59 +0.42

Samsunspor 0.87 1.74 +0.87

Samsunspor produced 0.87 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kocaelispor Samsunspor

Shots: 9; 19
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 4; 14
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.24; 1.34
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for Kocaelispor and 1.60 for Samsunspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Kocaelispor
Samsunspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kocaelispor

0.64 xG created 0.99 xGA

D 0.64 created, 0.85 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.34 created, 0.31 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
L 0.33 created, 1.35 conceded against Antalyaspor
L 0.43 created, 1.96 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 1.31 created, 0.60 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
W 0.76 created, 0.85 conceded against Konyaspor

Samsunspor

1.23 xG created 1.92 xGA

W 1.37 created, 0.89 conceded against Galatasaray
L 0.32 created, 3.31 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 2.11 created, 2.20 conceded against Göztepe
D 2.80 created, 1.71 conceded against Göztepe
W 0.33 created, 1.85 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.46 created, 1.56 conceded against Fenerbahçe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kocaelispor: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kocaelispor against Samsunspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.20	+10.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.65	+10.0%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.00	+6.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kocaelispor	41.0%	43.0%	−2.1 pp	2.44
Draw	34.6%	28.9%	+5.7 pp	2.89
Samsunspor	24.4%	28.0%	−3.6 pp	4.10

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	45.6%	48.5%	−2.9 pp	2.19
Both teams not to score	54.4%	51.5%	+2.9 pp	1.84
Over 1.5 goals	64.5%	68.7%	−4.2 pp	1.55
Under 1.5 goals	35.5%	31.3%	+4.2 pp	2.82
Over 2.5 goals	33.3%	42.9%	−9.5 pp	3.00
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	57.1%	+9.5 pp	1.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kocaelispor sample: 20 matches
Samsunspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.