AGF 0:2 FC Midtjylland: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AGF Home 1.21 xG · 18 shots

FC Midtjylland Away 1.71 xG · 14 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

AGF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. FC Midtjylland won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Midtjylland's attack: 1.71 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.58). AGF produced 1.21 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.26).

Goals

11' Friday Etim FC Midtjylland · 0.21 xG chance 0–1
56' Denil Castillo FC Midtjylland · 0.13 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AGF: 43%
Draw: 30%
FC Midtjylland: 26% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AGF 1.47 1.21 -0.26

FC Midtjylland 1.13 1.71 +0.58

FC Midtjylland produced 0.58 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AGF FC Midtjylland

Shots: 18; 14
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 10; 10
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.83; 1.06
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.35
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for AGF and 1.40 for FC Midtjylland.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.46 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AGF
FC Midtjylland
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AGF

1.96 xG created 1.54 xGA

W 2.70 created, 2.09 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.91 created, 0.81 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.35 created, 3.37 conceded against Lyngby
L 1.92 created, 1.03 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.81 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.97 created, 1.10 conceded against Randers FC

FC Midtjylland

1.60 xG created 1.04 xGA

L 1.95 created, 2.09 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 0.82 created, 1.09 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.97 created, 0.41 conceded against AC Horsens
D 1.05 created, 0.49 conceded against Lyngby
W 1.28 created, 1.03 conceded against Randers FC
D 2.50 created, 1.11 conceded against Silkeborg IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AGF: 0 won · 3 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AGF against FC Midtjylland before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Midtjylland not to score	5.00	+48.6%	Lost
AGF to win	3.25	+41.3%	Lost
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	1.83	+25.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+14.1%	Won
Draw	3.60	+9.2%	Lost
AGF 2+ goals	2.38	+5.9%	Lost
AGF to score	1.29	+2.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AGF	43.5%	29.0%	+14.5 pp	2.30
Draw	30.3%	26.2%	+4.2 pp	3.30
FC Midtjylland	26.2%	44.9%	−18.7 pp	3.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AGF to score	79.7%	73.1%	+6.6 pp	1.25
AGF not to score	20.3%	26.9%	−6.6 pp	4.92
FC Midtjylland to score	70.3%	81.1%	−10.8 pp	1.42
FC Midtjylland not to score	29.7%	18.9%	+10.8 pp	3.36
Both teams to score	57.8%	58.9%	−1.1 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.2%	41.1%	+1.1 pp	2.37
AGF 2+ goals	44.6%	39.2%	+5.4 pp	2.24
AGF at most 1 goal	55.4%	60.8%	−5.4 pp	1.80
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals	31.3%	50.0%	−18.7 pp	3.19
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	68.7%	50.0%	+18.7 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	79.2%	−1.8 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	20.8%	+1.8 pp	4.42
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	58.2%	−8.9 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	41.8%	+8.9 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AGF sample: 20 matches
FC Midtjylland sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.