FC Midtjylland 4:1 Brøndby IF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

FC Midtjylland Home 1.16 xG · 16 shots

Brøndby IF Away 0.80 xG · 12 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Midtjylland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Brøndby IF's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.35). FC Midtjylland produced 1.16 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Midtjylland: 43% What happened
Draw: 30%
Brøndby IF: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Midtjylland 1.49 1.16 -0.33

Brøndby IF 1.15 0.80 -0.35

Brøndby IF produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Midtjylland Brøndby IF

Shots: 16; 12
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.61; 0.80
Set-piece xG: 0.82; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for FC Midtjylland and 0.85 for Brøndby IF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Midtjylland
Brøndby IF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Midtjylland

1.73 xG created 1.06 xGA

W 1.97 created, 0.41 conceded against AC Horsens
D 1.05 created, 0.49 conceded against Lyngby
W 1.28 created, 1.03 conceded against Randers FC
D 2.50 created, 1.11 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 1.71 created, 1.21 conceded against AGF
D 1.88 created, 2.10 conceded against FC Nordsjælland

Brøndby IF

1.45 xG created 1.42 xGA

W 1.34 created, 1.95 conceded against Viborg FF
W 0.63 created, 0.49 conceded against AC Horsens
W 1.63 created, 0.92 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 2.14 created, 0.99 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.76 created, 3.32 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 1.19 created, 0.85 conceded against Randers FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Midtjylland: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Midtjylland against Brøndby IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+20.4%	Lost
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	2.20	+20.2%	Lost
FC Midtjylland not to score	6.00	+19.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+16.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+8.8%	Lost
Brøndby IF to win	4.00	+5.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Midtjylland	43.5%	53.3%	−9.8 pp	2.30
Draw	30.1%	23.3%	+6.8 pp	3.32
Brøndby IF	26.4%	23.3%	+3.1 pp	3.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Midtjylland to score	80.2%	84.2%	−4.0 pp	1.25
FC Midtjylland not to score	19.8%	15.8%	+4.0 pp	5.04
Brøndby IF to score	71.1%	68.7%	+2.3 pp	1.41
Brøndby IF not to score	28.9%	31.3%	−2.3 pp	3.46
Both teams to score	58.7%	58.9%	−0.2 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.3%	41.1%	+0.2 pp	2.42
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals	45.3%	57.7%	−12.3 pp	2.21
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	54.7%	42.3%	+12.3 pp	1.83
Brøndby IF 2+ goals	32.2%	35.5%	−3.2 pp	3.10
Brøndby IF at most 1 goal	67.8%	64.5%	+3.2 pp	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	78.2%	81.1%	−2.8 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.8%	18.9%	+2.8 pp	4.60
Over 2.5 goals	50.5%	59.9%	−9.4 pp	1.98
Under 2.5 goals	49.5%	40.1%	+9.4 pp	2.02

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Midtjylland sample: 20 matches
Brøndby IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.