FC Botoșani 1:0 FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 24/08/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Botoșani Home 1.81 xG

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc Away 1.01 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Botoșani were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Botoșani: 57% What happened
Draw: 26%
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Botoșani 1.89 1.81 -0.08

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 1.04 1.01 -0.03

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Botoșani FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Shots: 21; 12
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Botoșani

2.00 xG created 2.10 xGA

L 2.17 created, 1.18 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 2.57 created, 2.88 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 1.79 created, 1.45 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 2.14 created, 3.14 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 1.96 created, 1.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
L 1.38 created, 2.37 conceded against FCSB

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

0.58 xG created 1.65 xGA

L 0.16 created, 1.26 conceded against UTA Arad
W 1.18 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 0.26 created, 1.76 conceded against FCSB
L 0.00 created, 2.20 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 0.55 created, 1.21 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 1.34 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Botoșani: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Botoșani against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.83	+10.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+1.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Botoșani	56.6%	52.9%	+3.7 pp	1.77
Draw	25.8%	26.1%	−0.3 pp	3.88
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	17.6%	21.1%	−3.4 pp	5.67

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Botoșani to score	87.1%	84.2%	+2.8 pp	1.15
FC Botoșani not to score	12.9%	15.8%	−2.8 pp	7.72
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score	67.6%	64.5%	+3.1 pp	1.48
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc not to score	32.4%	35.5%	−3.1 pp	3.09
Both teams to score	60.3%	50.0%	+10.3 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.7%	50.0%	−10.3 pp	2.52
FC Botoșani 2+ goals	58.4%	55.7%	+2.6 pp	1.71
FC Botoșani at most 1 goal	41.6%	44.3%	−2.6 pp	2.40
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals	28.0%	27.7%	+0.3 pp	3.57
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc at most 1 goal	72.0%	72.3%	−0.3 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	76.6%	+6.3 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	23.4%	−6.3 pp	5.84
Over 2.5 goals	57.9%	53.9%	+3.9 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.1%	46.1%	−3.9 pp	2.37

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Botoșani sample: 20 matches
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.