Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeFC Dinamo București 2:1 FCSB
FC Dinamo București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Dinamo București's attack: 3.26 xG against 1.65 projected (+1.61). FCSB produced 0.68 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.55).
The model against the result
- FC Dinamo București
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- FCSB
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Dinamo București produced 1.61 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 7
- On target
- 14
- 2
- Inside the box
- 13
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.10
Recent form
1.88 xG created 1.25 xGA
- L 1.84 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- W 3.07 created, 1.08 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 1.65 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 1.42 created, 1.72 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 1.51 created, 1.94 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 1.78 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
2.06 xG created 1.26 xGA
- W 1.76 created, 0.26 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 4.29 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 0.72 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 2.37 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Botoșani
- L 1.74 created, 1.54 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 1.45 created, 1.08 conceded against UTA Arad
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 2.20 | +12.0% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București to win | 2.30 | +5.5% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +5.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +4.8% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București to score | 1.25 | +4.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +2.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București | 45.9% | 38.9% | +7.0 pp | 2.18 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 28.0% | +0.5 pp | 3.52 |
| FCSB | 25.7% | 33.1% | −7.4 pp | 3.89 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București to score | 83.3% | 75.0% | +8.3 pp | 1.20 |
| FC Dinamo București not to score | 16.7% | 25.0% | −8.3 pp | 6.00 |
| FCSB to score | 73.6% | 70.9% | +2.7 pp | 1.36 |
| FCSB not to score | 26.4% | 29.1% | −2.7 pp | 3.79 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 55.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 44.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.70 |
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 50.9% | 42.3% | +8.6 pp | 1.96 |
| FC Dinamo București at most 1 goal | 49.1% | 57.7% | −8.6 pp | 2.04 |
| FCSB 2+ goals | 35.4% | 37.5% | −2.1 pp | 2.83 |
| FCSB at most 1 goal | 64.6% | 62.5% | +2.1 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | 75.0% | +7.3 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.7% | 25.0% | −7.3 pp | 5.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 51.3% | +5.3 pp | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 48.7% | −5.3 pp | 2.31 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- FCSB sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.