Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFCSB 1:3 UTA Arad
FCSB were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. UTA Arad won 3–1. The biggest difference was FCSB's attack: 1.45 xG against 1.88 projected (−0.43).
The model against the result
- FCSB
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- UTA Arad
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FCSB produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 12
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.14
Recent form
2.13 xG created 1.39 xGA
- W 1.90 created, 1.86 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- W 1.76 created, 0.26 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 4.29 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 0.72 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 2.37 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Botoșani
- L 1.74 created, 1.54 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
2.04 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 3.82 created, 2.00 conceded against AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia
- D 2.25 created, 0.37 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- L 1.51 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Voluntari
- D 0.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 2.47 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 1.35 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad 2+ goals | 3.75 | +21.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +9.1% | Won |
| UTA Arad to score | 1.53 | +9.0% | Won |
| UTA Arad to win | 5.50 | +6.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +1.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 53.6% | 60.3% | −6.8 pp | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26.1% | 23.2% | +2.9 pp | 3.83 |
| UTA Arad | 20.3% | 16.5% | +3.9 pp | 4.92 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB to score | 86.9% | 85.4% | +1.5 pp | 1.15 |
| FCSB not to score | 13.1% | 14.6% | −1.5 pp | 7.61 |
| UTA Arad to score | 71.1% | 60.8% | +10.3 pp | 1.41 |
| UTA Arad not to score | 28.9% | 39.2% | −10.3 pp | 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 51.5% | +11.7 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.8% | 48.5% | −11.7 pp | 2.72 |
| FCSB 2+ goals | 58.0% | 58.9% | −0.9 pp | 1.72 |
| FCSB at most 1 goal | 42.0% | 41.1% | +0.9 pp | 2.38 |
| UTA Arad 2+ goals | 32.3% | 25.0% | +7.3 pp | 3.10 |
| UTA Arad at most 1 goal | 67.7% | 75.0% | −7.3 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | 78.3% | +5.9 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.8% | 21.7% | −5.9 pp | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 56.3% | +3.8 pp | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 43.7% | −3.8 pp | 2.51 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FCSB sample
- 20 matches
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.