UTA Arad 0:0 FC Corvinul Hunedoara: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

UTA Arad Home 1.35 xG

FC Corvinul Hunedoara Away 1.29 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

UTA Arad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was UTA Arad's attack: 1.35 xG against 1.85 projected (−0.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

UTA Arad: 49%
Draw: 26% What happened
FC Corvinul Hunedoara: 24%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

UTA Arad 1.85 1.35 -0.50

FC Corvinul Hunedoara 1.30 1.29 -0.01

UTA Arad produced 0.50 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

UTA Arad FC Corvinul Hunedoara

Shots: 17; 10
On target: 1; 1
Inside the box: 12; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

UTA Arad

2.03 xG created 1.11 xGA

W 1.26 created, 0.16 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 3.82 created, 2.00 conceded against AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia
D 2.25 created, 0.37 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
L 1.51 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 0.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 2.47 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj

FC Corvinul Hunedoara

1.93 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.40 created, 2.29 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 1.90 created, 0.86 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 1.59 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 3.84 created, 1.17 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on UTA Arad against FC Corvinul Hunedoara before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+32.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+22.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+14.5%	Lost
UTA Arad to win	2.15	+6.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad	49.4%	42.6%	+6.8 pp	2.02
Draw	26.4%	29.6%	−3.1 pp	3.78
FC Corvinul Hunedoara	24.1%	27.8%	−3.7 pp	4.15

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.7%	50.0%	+16.7 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.3%	50.0%	−16.7 pp	3.00
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	70.9%	+15.0 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	29.1%	−15.0 pp	7.08
Over 2.5 goals	62.9%	44.7%	+18.1 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.1%	55.3%	−18.1 pp	2.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
UTA Arad sample: 20 matches
FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample: 4 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.