Monday, 14/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Universitatea Cluj 3:0 SC Oțelul Galați
FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 0.20 xG against 1.21 projected (−1.01).
The model against the result
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Oțelul Galați
- 21%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Oțelul Galați produced 1.01 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 6
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 8
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.03
Recent form
2.10 xG created 2.00 xGA
- L 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 3.14 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
1.07 xG created 1.81 xGA
- D 0.37 created, 2.25 conceded against UTA Arad
- D 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 1.60 created, 0.65 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 0.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 2.65 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 0.48 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Rapid București
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals | 3.50 | +22.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +17.5% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +12.1% | Won |
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 1.50 | +9.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +2.6% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 1.73 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 52.6% | 54.4% | −1.7 pp | 1.90 |
| Draw | 25.9% | 24.9% | +1.0 pp | 3.85 |
| SC Oțelul Galați | 21.4% | 20.7% | +0.7 pp | 4.67 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 87.3% | 82.8% | +4.5 pp | 1.15 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 12.7% | 17.2% | −4.5 pp | 7.85 |
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 73.2% | 62.5% | +10.7 pp | 1.37 |
| SC Oțelul Galați not to score | 26.8% | 37.5% | −10.7 pp | 3.73 |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 51.5% | +13.8 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.7% | 48.5% | −13.8 pp | 2.88 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 58.8% | 53.7% | +5.2 pp | 1.70 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 41.2% | 46.3% | −5.2 pp | 2.43 |
| SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals | 34.8% | 26.9% | +8.0 pp | 2.87 |
| SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal | 65.2% | 73.1% | −8.0 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | 76.9% | +8.6 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.5% | 23.1% | −8.6 pp | 6.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 52.6% | +9.6 pp | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 47.4% | −9.6 pp | 2.65 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- SC Oțelul Galați sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.