Sepsi OSK 1:1 FC Farul Constanța: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sepsi OSK Home 1.53 xG

FC Farul Constanța Away 0.72 xG

11 Sepsi OSK had the better chances, but it finished level

Sepsi OSK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Farul Constanța's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sepsi OSK: 39%
Draw: 30% What happened
FC Farul Constanța: 30%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sepsi OSK 1.44 1.53 +0.09

FC Farul Constanța 1.25 0.72 -0.53

FC Farul Constanța produced 0.53 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sepsi OSK FC Farul Constanța

Shots: 15; 13
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sepsi OSK

1.08 xG created 1.49 xGA

L 0.14 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Rapid București
W 1.79 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 0.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
D 1.31 created, 0.72 conceded against FCSB
D 1.31 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

FC Farul Constanța

1.97 xG created 1.19 xGA

L 3.60 created, 0.59 conceded against FC Metaloglobus București
L 1.69 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
W 2.29 created, 0.40 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
D 1.97 created, 4.29 conceded against FCSB
W 1.21 created, 0.55 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sepsi OSK against FC Farul Constanța before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+9.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+5.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sepsi OSK	39.5%	37.9%	+1.6 pp	2.53
Draw	30.2%	28.4%	+1.8 pp	3.31
FC Farul Constanța	30.3%	33.7%	−3.4 pp	3.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	69.2%	+10.1 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	30.8%	−10.1 pp	4.83
Over 2.5 goals	52.0%	44.0%	+8.0 pp	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	48.0%	56.0%	−8.0 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sepsi OSK sample: 5 matches
FC Farul Constanța sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

Sepsi OSK has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.