Universitatea Craiova 3:1 FC Voluntari: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Universitatea Craiova Home 4.58 xG

FC Voluntari Away 0.87 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 70%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Universitatea Craiova's attack: 4.58 xG against 2.32 projected (+2.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Universitatea Craiova: 70% What happened
Draw: 20%
FC Voluntari: 10%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Universitatea Craiova 2.32 4.58 +2.26

FC Voluntari 0.89 0.87 -0.02

Universitatea Craiova produced 2.26 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Universitatea Craiova FC Voluntari

Shots: 24; 3
On target: 11; 1
Inside the box: 15; 2
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.29

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.95 xG created 1.18 xGA

D 0.08 created, 0.70 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 2.37 created, 0.53 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
L 1.08 created, 3.07 conceded against FC Dinamo București
W 4.14 created, 0.25 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 3.37 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 0.65 created, 1.60 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

FC Voluntari

1.51 xG created 2.18 xGA

L 0.66 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Hermannstadt
D 2.88 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.16 created, 2.88 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 0.79 created, 1.51 conceded against UTA Arad
L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Universitatea Craiova against FC Voluntari before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.00	+16.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+11.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+5.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Universitatea Craiova	69.9%	67.3%	+2.5 pp	1.43
Draw	20.0%	20.4%	−0.4 pp	4.99
FC Voluntari	10.1%	12.2%	−2.2 pp	9.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.0%	46.3%	+11.7 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	42.0%	53.7%	−11.7 pp	2.38
Over 1.5 goals	86.4%	76.6%	+9.9 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.6%	23.4%	−9.9 pp	7.38
Over 2.5 goals	64.3%	54.6%	+9.7 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.7%	45.4%	−9.7 pp	2.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Universitatea Craiova sample: 20 matches
FC Voluntari sample: 5 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

FC Voluntari has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.