Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK Crvena zvezda 3:0 FK Radnički Niš
FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FK Crvena zvezda's attack: 3.66 xG against 2.20 projected (+1.46). FK Radnički Niš produced 0.69 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.29).
The model against the result
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 65% What happened
- Draw
- 22%
- FK Radnički Niš
- 13%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Crvena zvezda produced 1.46 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 25
- 8
- On target
- 12
- 2
- Inside the box
- 17
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.09
Recent form
2.64 xG created 1.03 xGA
- W 3.93 created, 0.01 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.67 created, 1.86 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 2.53 created, 1.02 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.51 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.96 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 1.22 created, 0.60 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
1.66 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 2.77 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 0.54 created, 2.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- L 1.14 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- D 0.63 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš to win | 13.00 | +68.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +53.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +35.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena zvezda | 65.1% | 79.9% | −14.8 pp | 1.54 |
| Draw | 22.0% | 13.1% | +8.9 pp | 4.55 |
| FK Radnički Niš | 12.9% | 7.0% | +5.9 pp | 7.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 41.1% | +19.2 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.7% | 58.9% | −19.2 pp | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | 83.0% | +2.9 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.1% | 17.0% | −2.9 pp | 7.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 64.5% | −1.1 pp | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 35.5% | +1.1 pp | 2.73 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.