Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFK Mladost Lučani 1:0 FK Radnički Niš
FK Radnički Niš were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. FK Mladost Lučani won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnički Niš's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.74).
The model against the result
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 26% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Radnički Niš
- 44%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnički Niš produced 0.74 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 17
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 4
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.13
Recent form
1.17 xG created 1.43 xGA
- W 1.06 created, 0.86 conceded against FK Spartak Subotica
- L 0.31 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- W 2.01 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Javor Ivanjica
- W 1.03 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Napredak Kruševac
- D 1.20 created, 1.87 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- W 1.40 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Partizan
1.29 xG created 1.17 xGA
- L 1.05 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- L 1.63 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 2.77 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 0.54 created, 2.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- L 1.14 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- D 0.63 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš to win | 2.55 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +8.9% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +8.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | +7.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Mladost Lučani | 25.6% | 34.0% | −8.5 pp | 3.91 |
| Draw | 30.6% | 29.3% | +1.4 pp | 3.26 |
| FK Radnički Niš | 43.8% | 36.7% | +7.1 pp | 2.28 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 48.5% | +8.5 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.9% | 51.5% | −8.5 pp | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | 66.3% | +10.4 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 33.7% | −10.4 pp | 4.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 41.8% | +6.4 pp | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 58.2% | −6.4 pp | 1.93 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.