FK Mačva Šabac 0:0 FK Radnički 1923: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Mačva Šabac Home 0.22 xG

FK Radnički 1923 Away 3.02 xG

00 FK Radnički 1923 had the better chances, but it finished level

FK Radnički 1923 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnički 1923's attack: 3.02 xG against 1.43 projected (+1.59). FK Mačva Šabac produced 0.22 xG against 1.27 projected (−1.05).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Mačva Šabac: 31%
Draw: 30% What happened
FK Radnički 1923: 39%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Mačva Šabac 1.27 0.22 -1.05

FK Radnički 1923 1.43 3.02 +1.59

FK Radnički 1923 produced 1.59 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Mačva Šabac FK Radnički 1923

Shots: 8; 17
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.03; 0.18

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Mačva Šabac

0.86 xG created 2.16 xGA

L 0.01 created, 3.93 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 2.08 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 0.78 created, 1.14 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 0.92 created, 2.63 conceded against FK Novi Pazar

FK Radnički 1923

1.93 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 1.88 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
L 1.94 created, 2.37 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 4.05 created, 1.06 conceded against FK Zemun
W 0.74 created, 4.12 conceded against FK Partizan
W 2.23 created, 0.30 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
D 0.76 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Mačva Šabac against FK Radnički 1923 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.00	+21.2%	Lost
FK Mačva Šabac to win	3.70	+15.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	+11.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+8.1%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+0.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Mačva Šabac	31.1%	25.2%	+5.9 pp	3.21
Draw	30.3%	28.2%	+2.1 pp	3.30
FK Radnički 1923	38.6%	46.6%	−8.0 pp	2.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.6%	46.3%	+14.2 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.4%	53.7%	−14.2 pp	2.54
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	68.7%	+10.5 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	31.3%	−10.5 pp	4.83
Over 2.5 goals	51.9%	43.7%	+8.3 pp	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	48.1%	56.3%	−8.3 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Mačva Šabac sample: 5 matches
FK Radnički 1923 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Mačva Šabac has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.