Thursday, 10/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK Radnik Surdulica 0:0 FK Crvena zvezda
FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 0–0.
The model against the result
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 21%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 51%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.52 xGA
- L 1.91 created, 2.48 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 0.79 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.77 created, 1.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički
2.56 xG created 1.04 xGA
- D 0.74 created, 0.69 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 3.93 created, 0.01 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.67 created, 1.86 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 2.53 created, 1.02 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.51 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.96 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Partizan
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica to win | 9.50 | +103.6% | Lost |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 3.40 | +60.2% | Won |
| Draw | 5.25 | +46.8% | Won |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 4.50 | +36.2% | Lost |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 8.50 | +32.4% | Won |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 1.80 | +25.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +12.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +10.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 21.4% | 9.7% | +11.7 pp | 4.67 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 17.6% | +10.4 pp | 3.58 |
| FK Crvena zvezda | 50.6% | 72.7% | −22.1 pp | 1.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 69.7% | 51.5% | +18.3 pp | 1.43 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica not to score | 30.3% | 48.5% | −18.3 pp | 3.30 |
| FK Crvena zvezda to score | 84.4% | 89.0% | −4.6 pp | 1.18 |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 15.6% | 11.0% | +4.6 pp | 6.42 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 50.0% | +10.5 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.5% | 50.0% | −10.5 pp | 2.53 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 30.3% | 20.6% | +9.7 pp | 3.30 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica at most 1 goal | 69.7% | 79.4% | −9.7 pp | 1.43 |
| FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals | 52.9% | 72.3% | −19.5 pp | 1.89 |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 47.1% | 27.7% | +19.5 pp | 2.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | 81.4% | −0.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 18.6% | +0.2 pp | 5.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 62.5% | −7.6 pp | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 37.5% | +7.6 pp | 2.22 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.