Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK Radnik Surdulica 4:4 FK Partizan
FK Partizan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 4–4. The biggest difference was FK Partizan's attack: 3.40 xG against 1.48 projected (+1.92). FK Radnik Surdulica produced 2.02 xG against 1.34 projected (+0.68).
The model against the result
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 32%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- FK Partizan
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Partizan produced 1.92 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 18
- On target
- 8
- 7
- Inside the box
- 13
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.19
Recent form
1.55 xG created 1.14 xGA
- D 0.79 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.77 created, 1.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.62 created, 0.20 conceded against FK Zemun
2.16 xG created 1.54 xGA
- L 0.71 created, 2.25 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- L 4.12 created, 0.74 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.22 created, 1.40 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.71 created, 1.32 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.16 created, 1.96 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 2.02 created, 1.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica to win | 3.60 | +14.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +4.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +3.2% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +2.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +1.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 31.7% | 25.5% | +6.2 pp | 3.15 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.3% | +3.2 pp | 3.39 |
| FK Partizan | 38.8% | 48.2% | −9.4 pp | 2.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 55.7% | +7.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.1% | 44.3% | −7.1 pp | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 75.0% | +6.4 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 25.0% | −6.4 pp | 5.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 51.3% | +3.9 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 48.7% | −3.9 pp | 2.23 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.