Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offOFK Beograd – FK Crvena zvezda
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- OFK Beograd
- 21%
- Draw
- 26%
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 52%
| OFK Beograd | Draw | FK Crvena zvezda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.73 | 3.79 | 1.91 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Crvena zvezda
52% FK Crvena zvezda to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- FK Crvena zvezda attack v OFK Beograd defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 11th
- FK Crvena zvezda defence v OFK Beograd attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.45 vs -0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.17 – 1.86
- OFK Beograd v FK Crvena zvezda
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | OFK Beograd | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.29 · 11th | (better) 2.78 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.09 · 11th | (better) 0.98 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.80 · 11th | (better) +1.80 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 11th | (better) 2.36 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.62 | (better) +1.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FK Crvena zvezda clean sheet
- 28%
- FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 1:2
- 11.4%
- 0:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · OFK Beograd
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Crvena zvezda
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.