Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeOFK Beograd 0:1 FK Crvena zvezda
FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Crvena zvezda's attack: 1.20 xG against 2.11 projected (−0.91). OFK Beograd produced 0.75 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.42).
The model against the result
- OFK Beograd
- 18%
- Draw
- 24%
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 59% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Crvena zvezda produced 0.91 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 15
- On target
- 3
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.08
Recent form
1.19 xG created 2.21 xGA
- L 1.32 created, 2.71 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 0.39 created, 3.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- L 1.02 created, 2.66 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 1.95 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- D 1.39 created, 0.72 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- D 1.06 created, 1.10 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
2.99 xG created 0.94 xGA
- W 3.51 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.96 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 1.22 created, 0.60 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- W 3.66 created, 0.69 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- W 2.42 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- W 5.16 created, 0.46 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd to win | 8.00 | +41.5% | Lost |
| OFK Beograd 2+ goals | 4.00 | +32.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +18.6% | Lost |
| OFK Beograd to score | 1.62 | +16.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +13.7% | Lost |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +5.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd | 17.7% | 11.6% | +6.1 pp | 5.65 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 18.6% | +5.1 pp | 4.22 |
| FK Crvena zvezda | 58.6% | 69.8% | −11.2 pp | 1.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd to score | 71.8% | 57.7% | +14.2 pp | 1.39 |
| OFK Beograd not to score | 28.2% | 42.3% | −14.2 pp | 3.55 |
| FK Crvena zvezda to score | 89.9% | 88.3% | +1.6 pp | 1.11 |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 10.1% | 11.7% | −1.6 pp | 9.88 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 53.7% | +12.2 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.2% | 46.3% | −12.2 pp | 2.93 |
| OFK Beograd 2+ goals | 33.2% | 23.4% | +9.8 pp | 3.01 |
| OFK Beograd at most 1 goal | 66.8% | 76.6% | −9.8 pp | 1.50 |
| FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals | 64.7% | 68.7% | −4.1 pp | 1.55 |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 35.3% | 31.3% | +4.1 pp | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | 83.0% | +4.4 pp | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.6% | 17.0% | −4.4 pp | 7.94 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 64.5% | +1.3 pp | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 35.5% | −1.3 pp | 2.93 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.