FC Lugano 1:0 Servette FC: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Lugano Home 1.29 xG · 21 shots

Servette FC Away 1.81 xG · 10 shots

10 The result went against the chances

Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. FC Lugano won 1–0. The biggest difference was Servette FC's attack: 1.81 xG against 1.24 projected (+0.57).

Goals

90' Albian Ajeti FC Lugano · 0.14 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lugano: 32% What happened
Draw: 32%
Servette FC: 36%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lugano 1.16 1.29 +0.13

Servette FC 1.24 1.81 +0.57

Servette FC produced 0.57 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lugano Servette FC

Shots: 21; 10
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.95; 0.57
Set-piece xG: 0.68; 0.44
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.64 for FC Lugano and 1.02 for Servette FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.46 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Lugano
Servette FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lugano

1.73 xG created 1.29 xGA

D 1.79 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Sion
W 1.31 created, 1.32 conceded against Basel
W 2.03 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Vaduz
W 2.13 created, 1.83 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 2.46 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Zürich
W 0.67 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Sion

Servette FC

1.65 xG created 1.00 xGA

W 1.39 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.03 created, 0.18 conceded against FC Zürich
L 1.14 created, 1.61 conceded against Basel
L 1.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 1.64 created, 1.23 conceded against FC Luzern

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lugano: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lugano against Servette FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Lugano not to score	5.50	+57.6%	Lost
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	2.00	+34.8%	Won
Servette FC to win	3.70	+33.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+32.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+29.2%	Won
Draw	3.75	+21.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano	31.5%	49.4%	−17.8 pp	3.17
Draw	32.4%	25.1%	+7.3 pp	3.09
Servette FC	36.0%	25.5%	+10.6 pp	2.77

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano to score	71.3%	82.8%	−11.5 pp	1.40
FC Lugano not to score	28.7%	17.2%	+11.5 pp	3.49
Servette FC to score	74.1%	70.9%	+3.2 pp	1.35
Servette FC not to score	25.9%	29.1%	−3.2 pp	3.86
Both teams to score	54.8%	58.9%	−4.1 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.2%	41.1%	+4.1 pp	2.21
FC Lugano 2+ goals	32.6%	53.7%	−21.1 pp	3.07
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	67.4%	46.3%	+21.1 pp	1.48
Servette FC 2+ goals	35.9%	37.5%	−1.6 pp	2.78
Servette FC at most 1 goal	64.1%	62.5%	+1.6 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	73.5%	81.1%	−7.6 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.5%	18.9%	+7.6 pp	3.77
Over 2.5 goals	43.8%	59.0%	−15.1 pp	2.28
Under 2.5 goals	56.2%	41.0%	+15.1 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lugano sample: 20 matches
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.