Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC St. Gallen 1879 0:3 FC Sion
FC St. Gallen 1879 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. FC Sion won 3–0. The biggest difference was FC St. Gallen 1879's attack: 1.29 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.38).
Goals
- 37' Ylyas Chouaref FC Sion · 0.21 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Franck Surdez FC Sion · 0.46 xG chance 0–2
- 59' Ali Kabacalman FC Sion · 0.16 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- FC St. Gallen 1879
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Sion
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC St. Gallen 1879 produced 0.38 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 11
- On target
- 7
- 8
- Inside the box
- 14
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 0.77
- 1.07
- Set-piece xG
- 0.58
- 0.17
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.34 for FC St. Gallen 1879 and 1.25 for FC Sion.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 2.59 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC St. Gallen 1879
- FC Sion
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.18 xG created 1.50 xGA
- W 1.63 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Zürich
- W 2.17 created, 2.01 conceded against FC Vaduz
- D 3.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Luzern
- L 2.88 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Thun
- L 1.80 created, 2.23 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
- W 1.37 created, 0.90 conceded against Servette FC
2.29 xG created 1.46 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | +23.9% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 3.25 | +11.0% | Won |
| FC Sion at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +10.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7.00 | +9.8% | Lost |
| FC St. Gallen 1879 at most 1 goal | 2.25 | +9.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +6.3% | Lost |
| FC St. Gallen 1879 not to score | 6.50 | +5.9% | Won |
| FC Sion not to score | 4.50 | +4.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Gallen 1879 | 43.6% | 44.4% | −0.8 pp | 2.29 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 24.5% | +3.4 pp | 3.57 |
| FC Sion | 28.4% | 31.1% | −2.6 pp | 3.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Gallen 1879 to score | 83.7% | 85.4% | −1.7 pp | 1.19 |
| FC St. Gallen 1879 not to score | 16.3% | 14.6% | +1.7 pp | 6.14 |
| FC Sion to score | 76.8% | 79.2% | −2.4 pp | 1.30 |
| FC Sion not to score | 23.2% | 20.8% | +2.4 pp | 4.31 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 70.9% | −5.1 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.2% | 29.1% | +5.1 pp | 2.93 |
| FC St. Gallen 1879 2+ goals | 51.6% | 58.9% | −7.3 pp | 1.94 |
| FC St. Gallen 1879 at most 1 goal | 48.4% | 41.1% | +7.3 pp | 2.06 |
| FC Sion 2+ goals | 40.0% | 50.0% | −10.0 pp | 2.50 |
| FC Sion at most 1 goal | 60.0% | 50.0% | +10.0 pp | 1.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | 86.4% | −2.1 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.7% | 13.6% | +2.1 pp | 6.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 69.4% | −9.4 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 30.6% | +9.4 pp | 2.50 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC St. Gallen 1879 sample
- 20 matches
- FC Sion sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.