FC St. Gallen 1879 3:4 FC Thun: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC St. Gallen 1879 Home 2.88 xG · 25 shots

FC Thun Away 1.26 xG · 7 shots

34 The result went against the chances

FC St. Gallen 1879 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. FC Thun won 4–3. The biggest difference was FC St. Gallen 1879's attack: 2.88 xG against 2.03 projected (+0.85).

Goals

9' Brighton Labeau FC Thun · 0.85 xG chance 0–1
47' Nils Reichmuth FC Thun · 0.08 xG chance 0–2
48' Leon Frokaj FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.43 xG chance 1–2
53' Brighton Labeau FC Thun · 0.05 xG chance 1–3
58' Furkan Dursun FC Thun · 0.15 xG chance 1–4
75' Nevio Scherrer FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.20 xG chance 2–4
90' Lukas Daschner FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.70 xG chance 3–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC St. Gallen 1879: 54%
Draw: 25%
FC Thun: 21% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC St. Gallen 1879 2.03 2.88 +0.85

FC Thun 1.28 1.26 -0.02

FC St. Gallen 1879 produced 0.85 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC St. Gallen 1879 FC Thun

Shots: 25; 7
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 19; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.18
Open play xG: 2.58; 1.24
Set-piece xG: 0.38; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.91 for FC St. Gallen 1879 and 1.26 for FC Thun.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 4.25 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC St. Gallen 1879
FC Thun
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC St. Gallen 1879

2.26 xG created 1.66 xGA

W 2.91 created, 2.44 conceded against FC Lugano
W 1.30 created, 1.45 conceded against Basel
D 2.33 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.63 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.17 created, 2.01 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 3.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Luzern

FC Thun

1.29 xG created 2.74 xGA

L 1.28 created, 1.57 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.83 created, 5.57 conceded against Young Boys
D 1.43 created, 2.33 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.92 created, 2.53 conceded against FC Luzern
L 0.61 created, 3.38 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.64 created, 1.09 conceded against Basel

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC St. Gallen 1879: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC St. Gallen 1879 against FC Thun before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.40	+11.6%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+3.8%	Lost
FC Thun to win	4.50	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC St. Gallen 1879	54.2%	56.3%	−2.1 pp	1.85
Draw	24.7%	22.9%	+1.8 pp	4.04
FC Thun	21.1%	20.8%	+0.2 pp	4.74

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.7%	68.7%	−1.1 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.3%	31.3%	+1.1 pp	3.09
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	88.1%	−0.5 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	11.9%	+0.5 pp	8.05
Over 2.5 goals	66.2%	71.8%	−5.7 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	33.8%	28.2%	+5.7 pp	2.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC St. Gallen 1879 sample: 20 matches
FC Thun sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.