Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Thun 0:0 FC Lausanne-Sport
FC Thun were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Lausanne-Sport's attack: 0.86 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.37).
The model against the result
- FC Thun
- 41%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- FC Lausanne-Sport
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Lausanne-Sport produced 0.37 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 10
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.03
- 0.73
- Set-piece xG
- 0.53
- 0.12
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.58 for FC Thun and 0.86 for FC Lausanne-Sport.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.41 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Thun
- FC Lausanne-Sport
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.28 xG created 2.96 xGA
- L 1.83 created, 5.57 conceded against Young Boys
- D 1.43 created, 2.33 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
- W 1.92 created, 2.53 conceded against FC Luzern
- L 0.61 created, 3.38 conceded against Young Boys
- L 0.64 created, 1.09 conceded against Basel
- W 1.26 created, 2.88 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
1.22 xG created 1.00 xGA
- L 2.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
- D 0.80 created, 0.74 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
- W 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against Basel
- D 1.54 created, 1.09 conceded against Young Boys
- L 0.41 created, 0.98 conceded against FC Luzern
- L 1.09 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Zürich
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun not to score | 5.50 | +9.8% | Won |
| FC Thun at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +9.7% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +9.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +7.8% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | +3.1% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +1.6% | Won |
| FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +1.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 41.3% | 44.9% | −3.5 pp | 2.42 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 26.2% | +3.8 pp | 3.34 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 28.7% | 29.0% | −0.2 pp | 3.48 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun to score | 80.0% | 82.8% | −2.8 pp | 1.25 |
| FC Thun not to score | 20.0% | 17.2% | +2.8 pp | 5.01 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport to score | 73.7% | 75.0% | −1.3 pp | 1.36 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport not to score | 26.3% | 25.0% | +1.3 pp | 3.81 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 64.5% | −3.8 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.3% | 35.5% | +3.8 pp | 2.55 |
| FC Thun 2+ goals | 45.1% | 53.7% | −8.5 pp | 2.22 |
| FC Thun at most 1 goal | 54.9% | 46.3% | +8.5 pp | 1.82 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport 2+ goals | 35.5% | 41.1% | −5.6 pp | 2.82 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal | 64.5% | 58.9% | +5.6 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | 81.1% | −1.4 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.3% | 18.9% | +1.4 pp | 4.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 59.0% | −6.4 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 41.0% | +6.4 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Thun sample
- 20 matches
- FC Lausanne-Sport sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.