FC Zürich 2:4 Young Boys: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Tuesday, 01/09/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Zürich Home 1.71 xG · 16 shots

Young Boys Away 1.52 xG · 8 shots

24 The chances were evenly matched

Young Boys were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was FC Zürich's attack: 1.71 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.38). Young Boys produced 1.52 xG against 1.79 projected (−0.27).

Goals

11' Miguel Reichmuth FC Zürich · 0.20 xG chance 1–0
23' Christian Fassnacht Young Boys · 0.48 xG chance 1–1
32' Christian Fassnacht Young Boys · 0.24 xG chance 1–2
55' Christian Fassnacht Young Boys · 0.22 xG chance 1–3
73' Alan Virginius Young Boys · 0.11 xG chance 1–4
86' Lindrit Kamberi FC Zürich · 0.03 xG chance 2–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Zürich: 26%
Draw: 27%
Young Boys: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Zürich 1.33 1.71 +0.38

Young Boys 1.79 1.52 -0.27

FC Zürich produced 0.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Zürich Young Boys

Shots: 16; 8
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 10; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.84; 1.51
Set-piece xG: 1.01; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.85 for FC Zürich and 1.52 for Young Boys.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 3.36 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Zürich
Young Boys
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Zürich

1.12 xG created 1.73 xGA

L 0.18 created, 2.03 conceded against Servette FC
L 1.11 created, 1.63 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.48 created, 1.53 conceded against Servette FC
L 0.87 created, 2.46 conceded against FC Lugano
L 1.35 created, 1.64 conceded against Basel
W 1.71 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport

Young Boys

2.04 xG created 1.42 xGA

D 1.24 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Sion
W 2.54 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Sion
W 3.38 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.09 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.19 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 1.77 created, 1.28 conceded against Basel

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Zürich: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Zürich against Young Boys before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Young Boys at most 1 goal	3.00	+34.2%	Lost
FC Zürich to win	5.00	+30.1%	Lost
Young Boys not to score	9.00	+29.9%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+21.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+17.2%	Lost
FC Zürich 2+ goals	2.63	+3.1%	Won
FC Zürich to score	1.33	+1.7%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zürich	26.0%	18.6%	+7.4 pp	3.84
Draw	27.0%	20.7%	+6.3 pp	3.70
Young Boys	47.0%	60.7%	−13.7 pp	2.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zürich to score	76.3%	70.9%	+5.4 pp	1.31
FC Zürich not to score	23.7%	29.1%	−5.4 pp	4.22
Young Boys to score	85.6%	89.4%	−3.8 pp	1.17
Young Boys not to score	14.4%	10.6%	+3.8 pp	6.93
Both teams to score	66.7%	66.3%	+0.5 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.3%	33.7%	−0.5 pp	3.01
FC Zürich 2+ goals	39.3%	35.5%	+3.8 pp	2.55
FC Zürich at most 1 goal	60.7%	64.5%	−3.8 pp	1.65
Young Boys 2+ goals	55.3%	68.7%	−13.5 pp	1.81
Young Boys at most 1 goal	44.7%	31.3%	+13.5 pp	2.23
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	86.4%	−0.9 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	13.6%	+0.9 pp	6.90
Over 2.5 goals	62.2%	69.4%	−7.2 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.8%	30.6%	+7.2 pp	2.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Zürich sample: 20 matches
Young Boys sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.