Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeGrasshopper Club Zürich 2:2 FC Zürich
Grasshopper Club Zürich were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Grasshopper Club Zürich's attack: 4.16 xG against 1.56 projected (+2.60). FC Zürich produced 0.77 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.48).
Goals
- 54' Kevin Spadanuda FC Zürich · 0.41 xG chance 0–1
- 58' Samuel Krasniqi Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.63 xG chance 1–1
- 80' Umeh Emmanuel FC Zürich · 0.05 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Bujar Pllana Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.31 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 43%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- FC Zürich
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Grasshopper Club Zürich produced 2.60 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 11
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 16
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.21
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.92
- 0.61
- Set-piece xG
- 1.51
- 0.18
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.39 for Grasshopper Club Zürich and 0.77 for FC Zürich.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 5.04 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- FC Zürich
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.55 xG created 2.03 xGA
- W 0.52 created, 2.98 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- D 0.74 created, 0.80 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- L 1.83 created, 2.13 conceded against FC Lugano
- L 0.97 created, 2.15 conceded against Servette FC
- L 2.99 created, 2.31 conceded against FC Vaduz
- W 2.23 created, 1.80 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
1.37 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 1.11 created, 1.63 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
- W 1.48 created, 1.53 conceded against Servette FC
- L 0.87 created, 2.46 conceded against FC Lugano
- L 1.35 created, 1.64 conceded against Basel
- W 1.71 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- L 1.71 created, 1.52 conceded against Young Boys
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshopper Club Zürich to win | 2.55 | +9.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +8.5% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +4.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshopper Club Zürich | 42.9% | 36.9% | +6.0 pp | 2.33 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.4% | +3.9 pp | 3.41 |
| FC Zürich | 27.8% | 37.6% | −9.8 pp | 3.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 62.5% | −0.3 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.8% | 37.5% | +0.3 pp | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | 79.2% | +2.0 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 20.8% | −2.0 pp | 5.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 59.0% | −4.2 pp | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 41.0% | +4.2 pp | 2.21 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Grasshopper Club Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- FC Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.