Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00
14d 14h to kick-offFC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih – LNZ Cherkasy
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 23%
- Draw
- 30%
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 47%
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | Draw | LNZ Cherkasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.26 | 3.35 | 2.14 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans LNZ Cherkasy
47% LNZ Cherkasy to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 14th
- LNZ Cherkasy attack v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 7th
- LNZ Cherkasy defence v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.82 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.07 – 1.54
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih v LNZ Cherkasy
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.32 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.96 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) +0.84 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.83 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 1.64 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.76 | (better) +0.82 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet
- 31%
- LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:2
- 11.1%
- 0:1
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · LNZ Cherkasy
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.