Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offFC Livyi Bereh Kyiv – LNZ Cherkasy
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 20%
- Draw
- 33%
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 47%
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | Draw | LNZ Cherkasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.04 | 3.05 | 2.11 |
- Total goals
- 2.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 47%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans LNZ Cherkasy
47% LNZ Cherkasy to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 7th
- LNZ Cherkasy attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 14th
- LNZ Cherkasy defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.82 vs -0.20
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.81 – 1.32
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv v LNZ Cherkasy
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.71 · 14th | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.09 · 5th | 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.38 · 11th | (better) +0.84 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.01 · 11th | (better) 1.64 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.20 | (better) +0.82 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet
- 41%
- LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 53%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 0:1
- 13.4%
- 0:0
- 11.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 7 matches
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · LNZ Cherkasy
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.