Karpaty Lviv 1:2 Shakhtar Donetsk: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Karpaty Lviv Home 2.05 xG

Shakhtar Donetsk Away 1.58 xG

12 The result went against the chances

Shakhtar Donetsk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Karpaty Lviv's attack: 2.05 xG against 0.94 projected (+1.11).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Karpaty Lviv: 22%
Draw: 31%
Shakhtar Donetsk: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Karpaty Lviv 0.94 2.05 +1.11

Shakhtar Donetsk 1.43 1.58 +0.15

Karpaty Lviv produced 1.11 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Karpaty Lviv Shakhtar Donetsk

Shots: 7; 10
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.29; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Karpaty Lviv

2.02 xG created 1.64 xGA

D 1.53 created, 1.28 conceded against Metalist 1925
W 2.38 created, 1.43 conceded against Veres Rivne
W 3.67 created, 2.34 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
W 1.16 created, 1.60 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
W 1.96 created, 2.83 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
D 1.42 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.81 xG created 0.77 xGA

W 4.07 created, 0.36 conceded against SC Poltava
W 0.54 created, 0.78 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
W 1.19 created, 1.20 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
W 2.80 created, 0.29 conceded against Kudrivka
W 1.39 created, 0.47 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
W 0.88 created, 1.51 conceded against Metalist 1925

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Karpaty Lviv: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Karpaty Lviv against Shakhtar Donetsk before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+5.0%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+3.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Karpaty Lviv	21.9%	19.8%	+2.1 pp	4.57
Draw	31.2%	26.9%	+4.3 pp	3.20
Shakhtar Donetsk	46.9%	53.3%	−6.4 pp	2.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.4%	50.0%	+2.4 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	50.0%	−2.4 pp	2.10
Over 1.5 goals	73.0%	73.1%	−0.2 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.0%	26.9%	+0.2 pp	3.70
Over 2.5 goals	43.2%	48.7%	−5.4 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.8%	51.3%	+5.4 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Karpaty Lviv sample: 20 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.