xgEdge

Expected goals

Karpaty Lviv expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Ukrainian Premier League · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Karpaty Lviv's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ukrainian Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Karpaty Lviv xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.90 xG per match
#4/16
Attack (xG per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Metalist 1925 2.42
#2 Polissya Zhytomyr 2.19
#3 LNZ Cherkasy 2.10
#4 Karpaty Lviv 1.90
#5 Shakhtar Donetsk 1.88
#6 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 1.86
#7 Dynamo Kyiv 1.81
#8 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.74
#9 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.36
#10 Kolos Kovalivka 1.34
#11 Zoria Luhansk 1.15
#12 Veres Rivne 0.94
#13 Kudrivka 0.86
#14 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 0.71
#15 Obolon Kyiv 0.60
#16 Chornomorets Odesa 0.54
League avg
1.51
Total
13.27 7 matches
Defence
1.59 xGA per match
#10/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.68
#2 Metalist 1925 0.79
#3 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.92
#4 Dynamo Kyiv 0.94
#5 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1.09
#6 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.17
#7 LNZ Cherkasy 1.26
#8 Chornomorets Odesa 1.30
#9 Zoria Luhansk 1.37
#10 Karpaty Lviv 1.59
#11 Kolos Kovalivka 1.69
#12 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2.01
#13 Veres Rivne 2.06
#14 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2.32
#15 Kudrivka 2.50
#16 Obolon Kyiv 2.79
League avg
1.51
Total
11.16 7 matches
xG difference
+0.30 xGD per match
#7/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Metalist 1925 +1.63
#2 Polissya Zhytomyr +1.51
#3 Shakhtar Donetsk +0.96
#4 Dynamo Kyiv +0.87
#5 LNZ Cherkasy +0.84
#6 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi +0.57
#7 Karpaty Lviv +0.30
#8 Bukovyna Chernivtsi -0.14
#9 Zoria Luhansk -0.22
#10 Kolos Kovalivka -0.34
#11 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv -0.38
#12 Chornomorets Odesa -0.76
#13 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih -0.96
#14 Veres Rivne -1.13
#15 Kudrivka -1.65
#16 Obolon Kyiv -2.19
League avg
0.00
Total
+2.11 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.58 xPts per match
#7/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Polissya Zhytomyr 2.29
#2 Metalist 1925 2.23
#3 Dynamo Kyiv 2.02
#4 Shakhtar Donetsk 2.01
#5 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.72
#6 LNZ Cherkasy 1.64
#7 Karpaty Lviv 1.58
#8 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 1.38
#9 Zoria Luhansk 1.20
#10 Kolos Kovalivka 1.15
#11 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1.01
#12 Veres Rivne 0.85
#13 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.83
#14 Chornomorets Odesa 0.74
#15 Kudrivka 0.54
#16 Obolon Kyiv 0.48
League avg
1.40
Total
11.03 vs 14 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Karpaty Lviv's underlying numbers sit close to the Ukrainian Premier League average. They rank #7 for xG difference at +0.30 per match, built on the league's best chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 15 goals are 1.73 above 13.27 xG, while 14 points are 2.97 above 11.03 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.78 xG from penalties
15 13.27 +1.73 scored 1.73 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 11.16 -6.16 conceded 6.16 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
14 11.03 +2.97 2.97 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Karpaty Lviv are 1.73 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +3.21, against Bukovyna Chernivtsi on Sat 15/08.

Goals
15
xG
13.27
Gap
+1.73
Sat 01/08 Mon 10/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Fri 11/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.33 +2.17 +3.21 +2.79 +1.74 +1.35 +1.73 +0.33 +1.84 +1.04 -0.42 -1.05 -0.39 +0.38 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Karpaty Lviv: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 4 3.67 +0.33 +0.33
Mon 10/08 LNZ Cherkasy 3 1.16 +1.84 +2.17
Sat 15/08 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 3 1.96 +1.04 +3.21
Sat 29/08 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1 1.42 -0.42 +2.79
Sat 05/09 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 2.05 -1.05 +1.74
Fri 11/09 Kolos Kovalivka 2 2.39 -0.39 +1.35
Sun 20/09 Veres Rivne 1 0.62 +0.38 +1.73

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Karpaty Lviv xG trend

Current form +0.25 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 7 matches. The worst was against Bukovyna Chernivtsi on Sat 15/08 (-0.87).

npxG · last 6
1.60
npxGA · last 6
1.34
-1 0 +1 +2 +1.33 Sat 01/08 +0.30 Mon 10/08 -0.87 Sat 15/08 +1.05 Sat 29/08 +0.47 Sat 05/09 +1.26 Fri 11/09 -0.69 Sun 20/09 +0.41 season avg
Karpaty Lviv: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2.91 1.58 +1.33 +1.33
Mon 10/08 LNZ Cherkasy 1.14 0.84 +0.30 +0.82
Sat 15/08 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 1.96 2.83 -0.87 +0.25
Sat 29/08 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1.42 0.37 +1.05 +0.45
Sat 05/09 Shakhtar Donetsk 2.05 1.58 +0.47 +0.46
Fri 11/09 Kolos Kovalivka 2.39 1.13 +1.26 +0.59
Sun 20/09 Veres Rivne 0.62 1.31 -0.69 +0.41

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.78 npxG and 1.38 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 9 hardest of 16 in Ukrainian Premier League
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 10 hardest of 16 in Ukrainian Premier League
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 9 hardest of 16

  1. Veres Rivne Home −0.37
  2. Kolos Kovalivka Away −0.18
  3. Shakhtar Donetsk Home +0.66
  4. FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Away −0.35
  5. Bukovyna Chernivtsi Home +0.05
  6. LNZ Cherkasy Home +0.39
  7. FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Away −0.18

Last 5

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 10 hardest of 16

  1. Veres Rivne Home −0.37
  2. Kolos Kovalivka Away −0.18
  3. Shakhtar Donetsk Home +0.66
  4. FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Away −0.35
  5. Bukovyna Chernivtsi Home +0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Karpaty Lviv shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Karpaty Lviv take 13.1 shots a match (league 13.5) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #9 in Ukrainian Premier League for volume and #1 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 54%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.1 shots per match
#9/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Polissya Zhytomyr 20.3
#2 Metalist 1925 17.8
#3 Dynamo Kyiv 16.3
#4 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 16.0
#5 Shakhtar Donetsk 15.2
#6 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 14.3
#7 LNZ Cherkasy 13.8
#8 Kolos Kovalivka 13.6
#9 Karpaty Lviv 13.1
#10 Zoria Luhansk 13.0
#11 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 12.4
#12 Veres Rivne 11.2
#13 Chornomorets Odesa 10.3
#14 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 10.0
#15 Kudrivka 8.8
#16 Obolon Kyiv 8.3
League avg
13.5
Total
92 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#1/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Karpaty Lviv 0.14
#2 Metalist 1925 0.14
#3 LNZ Cherkasy 0.13
#4 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.12
#5 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 0.12
#6 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.12
#7 Dynamo Kyiv 0.11
#8 Kudrivka 0.10
#9 Kolos Kovalivka 0.10
#10 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.10
#11 Zoria Luhansk 0.09
#12 Veres Rivne 0.09
#13 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.08
#14 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 0.07
#15 Obolon Kyiv 0.07
#16 Chornomorets Odesa 0.05
League avg
0.11
Total
12.49 npxG from 92 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.9 shots per match
#8/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Shakhtar Donetsk 7.0
#2 Metalist 1925 7.3
#3 Polissya Zhytomyr 7.7
#4 Dynamo Kyiv 9.7
#5 LNZ Cherkasy 11.2
#6 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 12.1
#7 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 14.6
#8 Karpaty Lviv 14.9
#9 Zoria Luhansk 15.0
#10 Veres Rivne 15.6
#11 Obolon Kyiv 16.5
#12 Kolos Kovalivka 16.6
#13 Chornomorets Odesa 16.8
#14 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 17.3
#15 Kudrivka 18.2
#16 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 18.3
League avg
13.5
Total
104 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#3/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 0.07
#2 Chornomorets Odesa 0.08
#3 Karpaty Lviv 0.09
#4 Zoria Luhansk 0.09
#5 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.10
#6 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.10
#7 LNZ Cherkasy 0.10
#8 Dynamo Kyiv 0.10
#9 Kolos Kovalivka 0.10
#10 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.11
#11 Bukovyna Chernivtsi 0.12
#12 Veres Rivne 0.12
#13 Metalist 1925 0.13
#14 Kudrivka 0.13
#15 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.13
#16 Obolon Kyiv 0.13
League avg
0.11
Total
9.64 npxGA from 104 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 54%

From 59 of 92 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

52% allowed inside the box

League avg 54%

From 54 of 104 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Karpaty Lviv home and away xG

Karpaty Lviv per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.45 2.49
xGA / match 1.83 1.28
xGD / match -0.38 +1.21
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.08 2.23

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Karpaty Lviv match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
4
xG / match
1.45
xGA / match
1.83
xGD / match
-0.38
Points
7 of 12
  1. Sun 20/09 Veres Rivne H xG 0.62 xGA 1.31 xGD -0.69
  2. Sat 05/09 Shakhtar Donetsk H xG 2.05 xGA 1.58 xGD +0.47
  3. Sat 15/08 Bukovyna Chernivtsi H xG 1.96 xGA 2.83 xGD -0.87
  4. Mon 10/08 LNZ Cherkasy H xG 1.16 xGA 1.60 P xGD -0.44

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Karpaty Lviv in Ukrainian Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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