Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
27d 14h to kick-offKolos Kovalivka – Polissya Zhytomyr
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 21%
- Draw
- 28%
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 51%
| Kolos Kovalivka | Draw | Polissya Zhytomyr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.77 | 3.56 | 1.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Polissya Zhytomyr
51% Polissya Zhytomyr to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 10th
- Polissya Zhytomyr attack v Kolos Kovalivka defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 10th
- Polissya Zhytomyr defence v Kolos Kovalivka attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.51 vs -0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.07 – 1.70
- Kolos Kovalivka v Polissya Zhytomyr
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kolos Kovalivka | Polissya Zhytomyr |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 10th | (better) 2.19 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.69 · 11th | (better) 0.68 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 10th | (better) +1.51 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.15 · 10th | (better) 2.29 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +1.51 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Polissya Zhytomyr clean sheet
- 31%
- Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:2
- 11.5%
- 0:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Polissya Zhytomyr
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.