Friday, 04/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timePolissya Zhytomyr 5:1 Kudrivka
Polissya Zhytomyr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Polissya Zhytomyr's attack: 5.21 xG against 1.91 projected (+3.30). Kudrivka produced 1.06 xG against 0.79 projected (+0.27).
The model against the result
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 64% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Kudrivka
- 12%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Polissya Zhytomyr produced 3.30 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 37
- 6
- On target
- 14
- 4
- Inside the box
- 28
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.18
Recent form
2.15 xG created 1.16 xGA
- W 2.45 created, 1.21 conceded against Oleksandria
- L 4.56 created, 2.37 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 1.64 created, 1.01 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 1.12 created, 0.22 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.26 created, 1.32 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 1.87 created, 0.83 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
1.18 xG created 1.74 xGA
- D 1.59 created, 0.07 conceded against Ahrobiznes Volochysk
- D 2.51 created, 2.50 conceded against Ahrobiznes Volochysk
- L 0.29 created, 2.80 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 0.67 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- D 1.03 created, 1.48 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.97 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kudrivka to win | 13.00 | +53.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.50 | +34.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | +29.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 63.7% | 76.6% | −12.9 pp | 1.57 |
| Draw | 24.5% | 16.5% | +8.0 pp | 4.09 |
| Kudrivka | 11.8% | 7.0% | +4.9 pp | 8.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 37.5% | +14.2 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.3% | 62.5% | −14.2 pp | 2.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 75.0% | +4.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 25.0% | −4.0 pp | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 52.6% | −0.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 47.4% | +0.7 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.